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首页> 外文期刊>E3S Web of Conferences >Simulation of two-dimensional distribution laws of random correlated quantities of natural-climatic factors in context of probabilistic assessment of reliability of hydraulic structures of cascades of hydroschemes
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Simulation of two-dimensional distribution laws of random correlated quantities of natural-climatic factors in context of probabilistic assessment of reliability of hydraulic structures of cascades of hydroschemes

机译：概率评价级联水轮机液压结构可靠性背景下的自然气候因素的二维分布规律模拟

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When performing calculations to assess reliability of hydraulic structures of cascades of hydroschemes on the basis of probabilistic methods, the necessity to simulate random natural-climatic phenomena producing loads and effects on hydraulic structures arises. In particular, statistical series of random quantities of such important natural-climatic phenomena are considered: annual lowest average monthly temperatures, annual maximal amplitudes of average monthly temperatures. Each of the enumerated natural-climatic phenomena is characterized by presence of close correlation connections between random quantities when passing from one hydroscheme of the cascade to another. The necessity to consider correlation connections requires construction (simulation) of joint distribution law of random quantities system. The purpose of the work is simulation of joint distribution law of system of random variables that do not satisfy the normal distributions, taking into account correlation connections between random variables when passing from one hydroscheme of the cascade to another. Methods of the theory of correlation and methods of mathematical statistics with the use of software package MathCad were used in the course of the investigation. Simulation of joint law of distribution of system of random variables that do not satisfy normal distributions, taking into account correlation connections between random variables when passing from one hydroscheme of the cascade to another, and also assessment of accuracy of results, that were performed, have shown advantages of this approach from the viewpoint of accuracy of results obtained by different procedures. The results can be used in probabilistic calculations of reliability of hydraulic structures and cascades of hydroschemes.
机译：在进行计算以评估概率方法基于概率方法的级联水池液压结构的可靠性，因此出现了模拟随机自然气候现象的必要性和对液压结构的影响。特别是，随机统计系列的随机量是如此重要的自然气候现象被认为：年度最低平均月度温度，年度最大幅度平均每月温度。每个枚举的自然气候现象的特征在于当从级联的一个水池到另一个水池时，随机量之间的存在紧密相关连接。需要考虑相关性连接的必要性需要随机量系统的联合分配定律的建设（仿真）。该工作的目的是仿真对不满足正常分布的随机变量系统的联合分配规律，考虑到从级联的一个HydroScheme的随机变量之间的相关连接。在调查过程中使用了使用软件包数学统计学相关性和数学统计方法的方法。仿真不满足正常分布的随机变量系统分布联合规律，考虑到随机变量与另一个水池的随机变量之间的相关性连接，并进行了评估结果的准确性，具有从不同程序获得的结果的准确性的观点出发地显示了这种方法的优点。结果可用于液压结构和级联水池级联的可靠性计算。

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