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Bayesian constraints on the astrophysical neutrino source population from IceCube data

机译：贝叶斯在冰区数据中的天体物理中微子源群体的限制

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摘要

We present constraints on an astrophysical population of neutrino sources imposed by recent data from the IceCube neutrino observatory. By using the IceCube point source search method to model the detection of sources, our detection criterion is more sensitive than using the observation of high-energy neutrino multiplets for source identification. We frame the problem as a Bayesian hierarchical model to connect the high-level population parameters to the IceCube data, allowing us to consistently account for all relevant sources of uncertainty in our model assumptions. Our results show that sources with a local density of n 0 ? 10 ? 7 ? ? Mpc ? 3 and luminosity L ? 10 43 ? ? erg ? s ? 1 are the most likely candidates, but that populations of rare sources with n 0 ? 10 ? 9 ? ? Mpc ? 3 and L ? 10 45 ? ? erg ? s ? 1 can still be consistent with the IceCube observations. We demonstrate that these conclusions are strongly dependent on the source evolution considered, for which we consider a wide range of models. In doing so, we present realistic, model-independent constraints on the population parameters that reflect our current state of knowledge from astrophysical neutrino observations. We also use our framework to investigate constraints in the case of possible source detections and future instrument upgrades. Our approach is flexible and can be used to model specific source cases and extended to include multimessenger information.
机译：我们向近期数据来自ICecube Neutrino天文台施加的中微子群的天体物理群体的限制。通过使用iceCube点源搜索方法来模拟源的检测，我们的检测标准比使用对源识别的高能量中微粒子多重的观察更敏感。我们将问题框架作为贝叶斯分层模型，将高级人口参数连接到ICecube数据，允许我们一直占我们模型假设中的所有相关的不确定性源。我们的结果表明，源于N 0的局部密度？ 10？ 7？还MPC？ 3和亮度L？ 10 43？还erg？ s？ 1是最有可能的候选人，但那些罕见的罕见来源与n 0？ 10？ 9？还MPC？ 3和l？ 10 45？还erg？ s？ 1仍然可以与ICecube观察一致。我们证明，这些结论强烈依赖于所考虑的源进化，我们考虑了广泛的模型。在这样做时，我们对体育中微生中微生观察结果反映了我们目前知识状态的人口参数的现实，模型无关的约束。我们还使用我们的框架在可能的源检测和未来仪器升级的情况下调查约束。我们的方法是灵活的，可用于绘制特定的源情况，并扩展到包括多方百料信息。

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