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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions >Diagnosis toward predicting mean annual runoff in ungauged basins
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Diagnosis toward predicting mean annual runoff in ungauged basins

机译：诊断到预测未凝固盆地的平均径流

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Prediction of mean annual runoff is of great interest but still poses a challenge in ungauged basins. The present work diagnoses the prediction in mean annual runoff affected by the uncertainty in estimated distribution of soil water storage capacity. Based on a distribution function, a water balance model for estimating mean annual runoff is developed, in which the effects of climate variability and the distribution of soil water storage capacity are explicitly represented. As such, the two parameters in the model have explicit physical meanings, and relationships between the parameters and controlling factors on mean annual runoff are established. The estimated parameters from the existing data of watershed characteristics are applied to 35 watersheds. The results showed that the model could capture 88.2?% of the actual mean annual runoff on average across the study watersheds, indicating that the proposed new water balance model is promising for estimating mean annual runoff in ungauged watersheds. The underestimation of mean annual runoff is mainly caused by the underestimation of the area percentage of low soil water storage capacity due to neglecting the effect of land surface and bedrock topography. Higher spatial variability of soil water storage capacity estimated through the height above the nearest drainage (HAND) and topographic wetness index (TWI) indicated that topography plays a crucial role in determining the actual soil water storage capacity. The performance of mean annual runoff prediction in ungauged basins can be improved by employing better estimation of soil water storage capacity including the effects of soil, topography, and bedrock. It leads to better diagnosis of the data requirement for predicting mean annual runoff in ungauged basins based on a newly developed process-based model finally.
机译：预测平均年度径流是非常兴趣的，但仍然在未凝固的盆地挑战。目前的工作诊断了受不确定性估计土壤蓄水能力分布的不确定性的平均径流预测。基于分布函数，开发了一种用于估计平均年径流的水平衡模型，在这种情况下明确地表示气候变异性和土壤储水能力分布的影响。因此，模型中的两个参数具有明确的物理意义，并且建立了均值年度径流的参数和控制因子之间的关系。来自流域特征数据数据的估计参数应用于35分水岭。结果表明，该模型可以平均捕获88.2？％的实际平均年径流的平均水目，表明拟议的新水平模型是有希望在未凝固的流域估算平均年径流。低估平均年径流主要是由于忽视了覆盖了陆地表面和基岩地形的影响而低估了低土壤蓄水量的面积百分比。通过最近的排水（手）和地形湿度指数（TWI）估计的土壤蓄水容量的较高空间可变性表明地形在确定实际土壤储存能力方面发挥着至关重要的作用。通过采用更好地估计土壤储水能力，包括土壤，地形和基岩的影响，可以提高未吞吐量盆地的平均年径流预测的性能。它导致基于新开发的基于过程的模型更好地诊断了预测未吞噬盆地的平均径流的数据要求。

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