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首页> 外文期刊>PLoS One >How inter-state amity and animosity complement migration networks to drive refugee flows: A multi-layer network analysis, 1991–2016
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How inter-state amity and animosity complement migration networks to drive refugee flows: A multi-layer network analysis, 1991–2016

机译：州间友情和敌意补充迁移网络如何推动难民流量：1991 - 2016年的多层网络分析

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What drives the formation and evolution of the global refugee flow network over time? Refugee flows in particular are widely explained as the result of pursuits for physical security, with recent research adding geopolitical considerations for why states accept refugees. We refine these arguments and classify them into explanations of people following existing migration networks and networks of inter-state amity and animosity. We also observe that structural network interdependencies may bias models of migration flows generally and refugee flows specifically. To account for these dependencies, we use a dyadic hypothesis testing method—Multiple Regression- Quadratic Assignment Procedure (MR-QAP). We estimate MR-QAP models for each year during the 1991–2016 time period. K-means clustering analysis with visualization supported by multi-dimensional scaling allows us to identify categories of variables and years. We find support for the categorization of drivers of refugee flows into migration networks and inter-state amity and animosity. This includes key nuance that, while contiguity has maintained a positive influence on refugee flows, the magnitude of that influence has declined over time. Strategic rivalry also has a positive influence on refugee flows via dyad-level correlations and its effect on the structure of the global refugee flow network. In addition, we find clear support for the global refugee flow network shifting after the Arab Spring in 2011, and drivers of refugee flows shifting after 2012. Our findings contribute to the study of refugee flows, international migration, alliance and rivalry relationships, and the application of social network analysis to international relations.
机译：什么推动了全球难民流量网络的形成和演变？难民流动尤其被广泛解释为物理安全的追求结果，最近的研究为为什么国家接受难民增加了地缘政治考虑因素。我们优化这些论点，并将它们分类为遵循现有迁移网络和国家间友情和敌意的网络的解释。我们还观察到结构网络相互依赖性可能偏离迁移模型，通常和难民具体地流动。要考虑这些依赖项，我们使用Dyadic假设检测方法 - 多元回归 - 二次分配过程（MR-QAP）。我们在1991 - 2016年时间段期间估计每年的MR-QAP模型。 K-mears的聚类分析通过多维缩放支持的可视化允许我们识别变量类别和年。我们发现支持难民流向迁移网络的驱动程序和国家间友情和敌意。这包括关键的细微汉尚，而恒星对难民流动保持积极影响，而这种影响的大小会随着时间的推移而下降。战略竞争对难民流动的积极影响通过Dyad-Level相关性及其对全球难民流量网络结构的影响。此外，我们发现2011年阿拉伯春季后全球难民流动网络转移，以及2012年后难民流动的司机。我们的调查结果有助于难民流动，国际移民，联盟和竞争关系的研究。社会网络分析在国际关系中的应用。

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