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Maintaining proper health records improves machine learning predictions for novel 2019-nCoV

机译:维持适当的健康记录改善了新型2019-NCOV的机器学习预测

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An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia continues to affect the whole world including major countries such as China, USA, Italy, France and the United Kingdom. We present outcome (‘recovered’, ‘isolated’ or ‘death’) risk estimates of 2019-nCoV over ‘early’ datasets. A major consideration is the likelihood of death for patients with 2019-nCoV. Accounting for the impact of the variations in the reporting rate of 2019-nCoV, we used machine learning techniques (AdaBoost, bagging, extra-trees, decision trees and k-nearest neighbour classifiers) on two 2019-nCoV datasets obtained from Kaggle on March 30, 2020. We used ‘country’, ‘age’ and ‘gender’ as features to predict outcome for both datasets. We included the patient’s ‘disease’ history (only present in the second dataset) to predict the outcome for the second dataset. The use of a patient’s ‘disease’ history improves the prediction of ‘death’ by more than sevenfold. The models ignoring a patent’s ‘disease’ history performed poorly in test predictions. Our findings indicate the potential of using a patient’s ‘disease’ history as part of the feature set in machine learning techniques to improve 2019-nCoV predictions. This development can have a positive effect on predictive patient treatment and can result in easing currently overburdened healthcare systems worldwide, especially with the increasing prevalence of second and third wave re-infections in some countries.
机译:持续爆发了一部小型冠状病毒(2019-NCOV)肺炎仍在继续影响全世界,包括中国,美国,意大利,法国和英国等主要国家。我们向2019-NCOV的“孤立”或“死亡”的结果(“恢复”,“孤立”或“死亡”)在“早期”数据集上。主要考虑是2019年患者死亡的可能性。核对2019-NCOV报告率的变化影响,我们在3月份从卡格上获得的2019-NCOV数据集上使用了机器学习技术(Adaboost,Text-Treen,Decision Tread Deficatifiers) 30,2020。我们使用“国家”,“年龄”和“性别”作为预测两个数据集的结果。我们包括患者的“疾病”历史(仅存在于第二个数据集中)以预测第二个数据集的结果。使用患者的“疾病”历史的使用改善了超过七倍的“死亡”的预测。忽略专利的“疾病”历史的模型在测试预测中表现不佳。我们的研究结果表明,使用患者的“疾病”历史的潜力作为机器学习技术中的功能集的一部分,以改善2019-NCOV预测。这种发展可以对预测患者治疗产生积极影响,并且可能导致目前全球的医疗保健系统宽松,特别是在一些国家的二次和第三波重新感染的普遍存在。

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