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A methodological framework for futures studies: integrating normative backcasting approaches and descriptive case study design for strategic data-driven smart sustainable city planning

机译：期货研究的方法论框架：整合规范性倒视方法和战略数据驱动智能可持续城市规划的描述性案例研究设计

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Originally proposed as an alternative to traditional energy planning methodology in the 1970s, backcasting is increasingly applied in futures studies related to sustainability, as it is viewed as a natural step in operationalizing sustainable development. This futures study is concerned with data-driven smart sustainable urbanism as an instance of sustainable urban development—a strategic approach to achieving?the long-term goals of urban sustainability. This is at the core of backcasting, which typically defines criteria for a desirable (sustainable) future and builds a set of feasible and logical pathways between the state of the future and the present. This paper reviews, discusses, and justifies the methodological framework applied in the futures study. This aims to analyze, investigate, and develop a novel model for data-driven smart sustainable cities of the future as a form of transformative change towards sustainability. This paper corroborates that the backcasting approach—as applied in the futures study—is well-suited for long-term urban problems and sustainability solutions due to its normative, goal-oriented, and problem-solving character. It also suggests that case study research is the most effective way to underpin?and increase the feasibility of future visions. Indeed, the case study approach as a research strategy facilitates the investigation and understanding of the underlying principles in the real-world phenomena involved in the construction of?the future vision?in the backcasting study. The novelty of this work lies in the integration of a set of principles underlying several normative backcasting approaches with descriptive case study design to devise a framework for strategic urban planning whose core objective is clarifying which city model is desired and working towards that goal. Visionary images of a long-term future based on normative backcasting can spur innovative thinking about and accelerate the movement towards sustainability. The proposed framework serves to help researchers in analyzing, investigating, and developing future models of sustainable urbanism, smart urbanism, and smart sustainable urbanism, as well as to support policymakers and facilitate and guide their actions with respect to transformative changes towards sustainability?based on empirical research.
机译：最初提出在20世纪70年代传统能源规划方法的替代方案，越来越多地应用于与可持续性有关的期货研究，因为它被视为运营可持续发展的自然一步。该期货研究涉及数据驱动的智能可持续城市主义，作为可持续城市发展的实例 - 实现的战略方法？城市可持续性的长期目标。这是在反播的核心，通常定义期望（可持续）未来的标准，并在未来的状态和现在之间建立一组可行和逻辑途径。本文审查，讨论，并证明期货研究中的方法框架。这旨在分析，调查和开发对未来数据驱动的智能可持续城市的新型模型，作为可持续性变革变革的形式。本文证实了期货研究中的反近方法 - 适用于由于其规范，目标导向和解决问题，适用于长期城市问题和可持续性解决方案。它还表明，案例研究研究是基础的最有效的方法？并提高未来愿景的可行性。实际上，作为研究策略的案例研究方法有助于调查和了解涉及建设的现实现象的潜在原则？未来的愿景？在反播研究中。这项工作的新颖性在于整合了一系列原则，其中包括描述性案例研究设计，为战略城市规划设计了一个框架，其核心目标是澄清所希望的城市模型并向这一目标工作的核心目标。基于规范性倒视的长期未来的远见证图像可以促进创新思考并加速可持续性的运动。拟议的框架有助于帮助研究人员分析，调查和发展未来的可持续城市主义，智能城市主义和聪明的可持续城市主义模式，以及支持政策制定者，并促进并指导他们对可持续发展变革变革的行动？基于实证研究。

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