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首页> 外文期刊>Frontiers in Public Health >Adaptive Time-Dependent Priors and Bayesian Inference to Evaluate SARS-CoV-2 Public Health Measures Validated on 31 Countries
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Adaptive Time-Dependent Priors and Bayesian Inference to Evaluate SARS-CoV-2 Public Health Measures Validated on 31 Countries

机译：自适应时间依赖的前瞻和贝叶斯推论，以评估31个国家验证的SARS-COV-2公共卫生措施

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With the rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus since the end of 2019, public health confinement measures to contain the propagation of the pandemic have been implemented. Our method to estimate the reproduction number using Bayesian inference with time-dependent priors enhances previous approaches by considering a dynamic prior continuously updated as restrictive measures and comportments within the society evolve. In addition, to allow direct comparison between reproduction number and introduction of public health measures in a specific country, the infection dates are inferred from daily confirmed cases and confirmed death. The evolution of this reproduction number in combination with the stringency index is analyzed on 31 European countries. We show that most countries required tough state interventions with a stringency index equal to 79.6 out of 100 to reduce their reproduction number below one and control the progression of the pandemic. In addition, we show a direct correlation between the time taken to introduce restrictive measures and the time required to contain the spread of the pandemic with a median time of 8 days. This analysis is validated by comparing the excess deaths and the time taken to implement restrictive measures. Our analysis reinforces the importance of having a fast response with a coherent and comprehensive set of confinement measures to control the pandemic. Only restrictions or combinations of those have shown to effectively control the pandemic.
机译：随着SARS-COV-2病毒的迅速传播，自2019年底以来，已经实施了遏制大流行传播的公共卫生监禁措施。我们使用贝叶斯推理与时间相关的前瞻性的再现数来估计再生数通过考虑动态预先更新作为限制性措施和社会中的表现而增强了先前的方法。此外，为了允许在特定国家的再现数量和引入公共卫生措施之间的直接比较，从日常确认案件中推断出感染日期并确认死亡。在31个欧洲国家分析了与严格指数组合的这种再现号码的演变。我们展示大多数国家要求严格的国家干预措施，严格指数等于100增加到79.6，以减少其重复数量，并控制大流行的进展。此外，我们在引入限制性措施的时间与遏制大流行蔓延的时间与8天的中位数相比，我们展现了直接相关性。通过比较多余的死亡和实施限制措施所采取的时间来验证该分析。我们的分析强化了具有快速响应的重要性，并采用连贯和全面的监禁措施来控制大流行。只有限制或组合所示有效地控制大流行。

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