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首页> 外文期刊>SOLA: Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere >Enhancement of Extremely Heavy Precipitation Induced by Typhoon Hagibis (2019) due to Historical Warming
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Enhancement of Extremely Heavy Precipitation Induced by Typhoon Hagibis (2019) due to Historical Warming

机译：由于历史变暖，Typhoon Hagibis（2019）引起了极其沉重的降水

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摘要

Impacts of historical warming on extremely heavy rainfall induced by Typhoon Hagibis (2019) are investigated using a storyline event attribution approach with the Japan Meteorological Agency Nonhydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). Control experiments based on JMA mesoscale analysis data well reproduce the typhoon's track, intensity, and heavy precipitation. First, two non-warming experiments are conducted: One excludes both 40-year atmospheric and oceanic temperature trends from 1980 to 2019, and the other excludes the oceanic trend only. A comparison between control and non-warming experiments indicates that historical warming strengthens typhoons and increases the amount of total precipitation by 10.9% over central Japan. The difference between CTL and non-warming experiments without both atmospheric and oceanic temperature trends is larger than that without just the oceanic trend (7.3%). Additional sensitivity experiments without Japan's topography indicate that topography enhances not only total precipitation but also the changes in total precipitation due to historical warming. Through the storyline event attribution approach, it is concluded that historical warming intensifies strength of Typhoon Hagibis (2019) and enhances the extremely heavy precipitation induced by the typhoon.
机译：使用与日本气象学代理无水化模型（JMA-NHM）的故事情节事件归因方法调查了Typhoon Hagibis（2019年）引起的历史升温对极大的降雨的影响。基于JMA Messcale分析数据的控制实验良好地再现了台风的轨道，强度和重度降水。首先，进行了两项非变暖实验：从1980年到2019年排除了40年的大气和海洋温度趋势，另一个排除了仅包括海洋趋势。对照和非变暖实验之间的比较表明，历史升温增强了台风并增加了日本中部10.9％的总降水量。没有大气和海洋温度趋势的CTL和非变暖实验之间的差异大于海洋趋势（7.3％）。没有日本地形的额外敏感性实验表明，地形不仅增强了总降水，而且由于历史升温，总降水的变化也是如此。通过故事情节的事件归因方法，得出结论，历史升温加剧了台风Hagibis（2019）的强度，增强了台风引起的极其沉重的降水。

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