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Quantifying the impacts of compound extremes on agriculture

机译:量化复合物极端对农业的影响

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摘要

Agricultural production and food prices are affected by hydroclimatic extremes. There has been a growing amount of literature measuring the impacts of individual extreme events (heat stress or water stress) on agricultural and human systems. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the significance and the magnitude of the impacts of compound extremes. This study combines a fine-scale weather product with outputs of a hydrological model to construct functional metrics of individual and compound hydroclimatic extremes for agriculture. Then, a yield response function is estimated with individual and compound metrics, focusing on corn in the United States during the 1981–2015 period. Supported by statistical evidence, the findings suggest that metrics of compound hydroclimatic extremes are better predictors of corn yield variations than metrics of individual extremes. The results also confirm that wet heat is more damaging than dry heat for corn. This study shows the average yield damage from heat stress has been up to four times more severe when combined with water stress.
机译:农业生产和食品价格受水皮极端的影响。越来越多的文献衡量了个体极端事件(热应力或水分压力)对农业和人类系统的影响。然而,我们缺乏对复合极端影响的重要性和幅度的全面理解。本研究结合了一种微量天气产品,具有水文模型的产出,以构建农业的个体和复合循环极端的功能度量。然后,用个体和复合度量估计产量响应函数,在1981 - 2015年期间聚焦在美国的玉米。结果支持统计证据,调查结果表明,复合液体极端极端的度量是比个体极端度量的度量更好的玉米产量变化的预测因子。结果还证实,湿热比玉米的干热更损害。该研究表明,当与水胁迫结合时,热应激的平均产量损伤在热应激造成的损伤高达四倍。

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