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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions >A novel causal structure-based framework for comparing a basin-wide water–energy–food–ecology nexus applied to the data-limited Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins
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A novel causal structure-based framework for comparing a basin-wide water–energy–food–ecology nexus applied to the data-limited Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins

机译：基于语言结构的框架，用于比较盆地水能 - 食品生态Nexus的框架，适用于数据有限的AMU Darya和Syr Darya River河流域

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摘要

The previous comparative studies on watersheds were mostly based on the comparison of dispersive characteristics, which lacked systemicity and causality. We proposed a causal structure-based framework for basin comparison based on the Bayesian network?(BN) and focus on the basin-scale water–energy–food–ecology?(WEFE) nexus. We applied it to the Syr Darya River basin?(SDB) and the Amu Darya River basin?(ADB), of which poor water management caused the Aral Sea disaster. The causality of the nexus was effectively compared and universality of this framework was discussed. In terms of changes in the nexus, the sensitive factor for the water supplied to the Aral Sea changed from the agricultural development during the Soviet Union period to the disputes in the WEFE nexus after the disintegration. The water–energy contradiction of the SDB is more severe than that of the ADB, partly due to the higher upstream reservoir interception capacity. It further made management of the winter surplus water downstream of the SDB more controversial. Due to this, the water–food–ecology conflict between downstream countries may escalate and turn into a long-term chronic problem. Reducing water inflow to depressions and improving the planting structure prove beneficial to the Aral Sea ecology, and this effect of the SDB is more significant. The construction of reservoirs on the Panj River of the upstream ADB should be cautious to avoid an intense water–energy conflict such as the SDB's. It is also necessary to promote the water-saving drip irrigation and to strengthen the cooperation.
机译：对流域的先前比较研究主要是基于分散特征的比较，这缺乏全身性和因果关系。我们提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的盆地比较的因果结构框架？（BN）并专注于盆地水能 - 食物生态学？（WEFE）Nexus。我们将其应用于Syr Darya River盆地？（SDB）和Amu Darya River盆地？（adb），其中水管理不良导致aral海洋灾难。有效地比较了Nexus的因果关系，并讨论了该框架的普遍性。就Nexus的变化而言，在苏联期间的农业发展期间，苏联期间的农业发展转变为崩解后的毒性问题，改变了苏联内部的争端。 SDB的水能矛盾比ADB更严重，部分原因是由于上游储层拦截容量越高。它进一步向SDB下游的冬季剩余水进行了争议。由于这一点，下游国家之间的水食生冲突可能会升级并变成长期的长期问题。减少水流入抑郁和改善种植结构对咸海生态有益，并且SDB的这种效果更为显着。上游亚行的Panj河上的水库建设应谨慎，避免避免强烈的水能冲突，如SDB。还有必要促进节水滴灌和加强合作。

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