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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions >Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study
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Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study

机译：不同全球变暖水平模拟地下水补给的不确定性：全球范围多模型集合研究

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Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus, the availability of this vital resource. Groundwater recharge is an important indicator for groundwater availability, but it is a water flux that is difficult to estimate as uncertainties in the water balance accumulate, leading to possibly large errors in particular in dry regions. This study investigates uncertainties in groundwater recharge projections using a multi-model ensemble of eight global hydrological models?(GHMs) that are driven by the bias-adjusted output of four global circulation models?(GCMs). Pre-industrial and current groundwater recharge values are compared with recharge for different global warming?(GW) levels as a result of three representative concentration pathways?(RCPs). Results suggest that projected changes strongly vary among the different GHM–GCM combinations, and statistically significant changes are only computed for a few regions of the world. Statistically significant GWR increases are projected for northern Europe and some parts of the Arctic, East Africa, and India. Statistically significant decreases are simulated in southern Chile, parts of Brazil, central USA, the Mediterranean, and southeastern China. In some regions, reversals of groundwater recharge trends can be observed with global warming. Because most GHMs do not simulate the impact of changing atmospheric CO 2 and climate on vegetation and, thus, evapotranspiration, we investigate how estimated changes in GWR are affected by the inclusion of these processes. In some regions, inclusion leads to differences in groundwater recharge changes of up to 100?mm per year. Most GHMs with active vegetation simulate less severe decreases in groundwater recharge than GHMs without active vegetation and, in some regions, even increases instead of decreases are simulated. However, in regions where GCMs predict decreases in precipitation and where groundwater availability is the most important, model agreement among GHMs with active vegetation is the lowest. Overall, large uncertainties in the model outcomes suggest that additional research on simulating groundwater processes in GHMs is necessary.
机译：数十亿人依赖地下水是一种可达饮用水的可达源，特别是在干旱的时期。它的重要性可能会随着气候变化而增加。然而，目前尚不清楚气候变化将如何影响全球地下水系统，因此，这种重要资源的可用性。地下水充值是地下水可用性的重要指标，但它是一种难以估计水平在积累的不确定性的水量，导致干燥区域中可能大的误差。本研究通过八个全局水文模型的多模型集合来研究地下水充电投影的不确定性吗？（GHM），由四个全局循环模型的偏置输出驱动的动力驱动？（GCMS）。预工业和电流地下水充电值与不同全球变暖的补给（GW）水平与三种代表性浓度途径（RCPS）进行比较。（RCPS）。结果表明，在不同的GHM-GCM组合中，预计变化强烈变化，统计上显着的变化仅适用于世界的几个地区。为北欧和北极，东非和印度的某些地区预计统计上显着的GWR增加。智利南部，巴西，美国中美洲，地中海和中国东南部的地区，模拟了统计上显着的减少。在一些地区，可以通过全球变暖来观察地下水充电趋势的逆转。由于大多数GHM不会模拟变化大气二氧化碳和气候对植被的影响，因此蒸发，我们调查GWR的估计变化如何受到这些过程的影响。在一些地区，包涵体导致地下水补给的差异每年最多100毫米的变化。大多数带有活跃植被的GHM模拟地下水再充电的严重降低而不是没有主动植被的GHM，并且在一些区域中，甚至模拟甚至增加而不是降低。然而，在GCMS预测降水中降低的地区并且地下水可用性是最重要的，具有主动植被的GHM之间的模型协议是最低的。总体而言，模型结果中的大不确定性表明，需要对模拟GHM的地下水过程进行额外的研究。

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