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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of infectious diseases : >SARIMA-modelled greater severity and mortality during the 2010/11 post-pandemic influenza season compared to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in English hospitals
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SARIMA-modelled greater severity and mortality during the 2010/11 post-pandemic influenza season compared to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in English hospitals

机译：2010/11年度大流行性流感季节中的萨米马建模的严重程度和死亡率更高，而2009年的英国医院2009年H1N1大流行病

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Objective The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates the need for understanding pathways to healthcare demand, morbidity, and mortality of pandemic patients. We estimate H1N1 (1) hospitalization rates, (2) severity rates (length of stay, ventilation, pneumonia, and death) of those hospitalized, (3) mortality rates, and (4) time lags between infections and hospitalizations during the pandemic (June 2009 to March 2010) and post-pandemic influenza season (November 2010 to February 2011) in England. Methods Estimates of H1N1 infections from a dynamic transmission model are combined with hospitalizations and severity using time series econometric analyses of administrative patient-level hospital data. Results Hospitalization rates were 34% higher and severity rates of those hospitalized were 20%–90% higher in the post-pandemic period than the pandemic. Adults (45–64-years-old) had the highest ventilation and pneumonia hospitalization rates. Hospitalizations did not lag infection during the pandemic for the young (24-years-old) but lagged by one or more weeks for all ages in the post-pandemic period. Discussion The post-pandemic flu season exhibited heightened H1N1 severity, long after the pandemic was declared over. Policymakers should remain vigilant even after pandemics seem to have subsided. Analysis of administrative hospital data and epidemiological modelling estimates can provide valuable insights to inform responses to COVID-19 and future influenza and other disease pandemics.
机译：目标Covid-19 Pandemase表现出了对大流行患者的医疗需求，发病率和死亡率的理解途径的需要。我们估计H1N1（1）住院费率，（2）住院病，（3）死亡率和（4）在大流行期间感染和住院时间滞后（4）时间滞后（ 2009年6月至2010年3月）和大流行性流感季节（2010年11月至2011年2月）在英格兰。方法使用行政患者级医院数据的时间序列计量分析，与动态传输模型H1N1感染的估计与住院和严重程度相结合。结果住院率为34％，百年流行期间，住院治疗的严重程度均高于大流行期高出20％-90％。成年人（45-64岁）的通风和肺炎住院费率最高。住院治疗在大流行期间没有滞后感染（＆ 24岁），但在大流行后期的所有年龄段落后一周或多周。讨论大流行后流感季节展出了H1N1严重程度，宣布大流行后漫长。政策制定者即使在流行病似乎已经消退后，也应该保持警惕。行政医院数据和流行病学建模估计的分析可以提供有价值的见解，以为Covid-19和未来流感和其他疾病大流行的反应。

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