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首页> 外文期刊>PLoS Computational Biology >A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir
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A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir

机译：多主机系统中的分枝杆菌传输的新文杆菌传播的新方法揭示了未观察水库的作用

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Multi-host pathogens are particularly difficult to control, especially when at least one of the hosts acts as a hidden reservoir. Deep sequencing of densely sampled pathogens has the potential to transform this understanding, but requires analytical approaches that jointly consider epidemiological and genetic data to best address this problem. While there has been considerable success in analyses of single species systems, the hidden reservoir problem is relatively under-studied. A well-known exemplar of this problem is bovine Tuberculosis, a disease found in British and Irish cattle caused by Mycobacterium bovis, where the Eurasian badger has long been believed to act as a reservoir but remains of poorly quantified importance except in very specific locations. As a result, the effort that should be directed at controlling disease in badgers is unclear. Here, we analyse densely collected epidemiological and genetic data from a cattle population but do not explicitly consider any data from badgers. We use a simulation modelling approach to show that, in our system, a model that exploits available cattle demographic and herd-to-herd movement data, but only considers the ability of a hidden reservoir to generate pathogen diversity, can be used to choose between different epidemiological scenarios. In our analysis, a model where the reservoir does not generate any diversity but contributes to new infections at a local farm scale are significantly preferred over models which generate diversity and/or spread disease at broader spatial scales. While we cannot directly attribute the role of the reservoir to badgers based on this analysis alone, the result supports the hypothesis that under current cattle control regimes, infected cattle alone cannot sustain M. bovis circulation. Given the observed close phylogenetic relationship for the bacteria taken from cattle and badgers sampled near to each other, the most parsimonious hypothesis is that the reservoir is the infected badger population. More broadly, our approach demonstrates that carefully constructed bespoke models can exploit the combination of genetic and epidemiological data to overcome issues of extreme data bias, and uncover important general characteristics of transmission in multi-host pathogen systems.
机译：多宿主病原体特别难以控制，特别是当至少一个主机用作隐藏的储存器时。深度测序密集地采样病原体具有改变这种理解的可能性，但需要共同认为流行病学和遗传数据的分析方法，以最佳解决这个问题。虽然在单种物种系统的分析中取得了相当大的成功，但是隐藏的水库问题相对研究。这个问题的众所周知的示例是牛结核病，一种疾病在英国和爱尔兰牛群中发现的疾病，欧亚獾长期以来一直认为欧亚獾作为水库，但除了非常具体的地点外，仍然存在差的重要性。结果，应在獾控制疾病方面的努力尚不清楚。在这里，我们分析了来自牛群的密集收集的流行病学和遗传数据，但没有明确考虑来自獾的任何数据。我们使用模拟建模方法显示，在我们的系统中，一种利用可用的牛人口统计和牛群运动数据的模型，但只考虑隐藏水库产生病原体多样性的能力，可用于选择之间不同的流行病学情景。在我们的分析中，储存器不会产生任何多样性但是在当地农场规模的新感染有助于在更广泛的空间尺度下产生多样性和/或传播疾病的模型，有助于新感染的模型。虽然我们不能直接将库的作用直接归因于基于这种分析的獾，但结果支持了当前牛控制制度的假设，仅受感染的牛不能维持牛群循环。鉴于从彼此采样的牛和獾采取的细菌观察到的细菌的密切系统发育关系，最具典范的假设是水库是受感染的獾人群。更广泛地，我们的方法展示了精心构建的定制模型可以利用遗传和流行病学数据的组合来克服极端数据偏差的问题，并揭示多主机病原体系统中传输的重要一般特征。

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