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Consumption Expenditures as Key Drivers of Economic Growth and Manufacturing Expansion in Nigeria

机译：消费支出作为尼日利亚经济增长和制造业扩张的关键驱动因素

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This study has two goals: first, to investigate the effects of private and government consumption expenditures as well as imports and exports on economic growth in Nigeria. Second, to analyse the implications of these expenditures for manufacturing sector expansion given the special growth-enhancing properties of manufacturing as articulated in the theoretical and empirical literature. Our estimations of the three models specified for the study are based on the Nigeria time-series data from the World Development Indicators database between 1981 and 2019 using Pesaran's ARDL regression methodology after testing the trend properties of the series. The validity and reliability of regression results were certified by the regression diagnostics.Our findings support significant positive effects of private consumption expenditure and exports on economic growth while government consumption expenditure and imports exert a significant negative impact on growth. These two expenditures that grow the economy neither significantly expand nor decrease manufacturing as the positive impacts of private consumption expenditure and the negative impacts of exports were insignificant. The negative effects on manufacturing of government consumption expenditure and imports were not significant. However, economic growth was found to significantly expand manufacturing activities. We conclude that over two-thirds of Gross Domestic Product expenditures constitute a leakage from the economy being insignificant to drive manufacturing expansion. The resultant loss of the flow of growth-enhancing externalities from manufacturing to other sectors of the economy may constrain future economic growth or cause the economy to grow in an unsustainable manner.
机译：本研究有两个目标：第一，调查私立和政府消费支出的影响以及进出尼日利亚经济增长的进口和出口。其次，鉴于制造业的特殊增长性能在理论和经验文献中阐明的特殊增长，分析了制造业拓展支出的影响。我们对本研究规定的三种模型的估算基于1981年至2019年间世界发展指标数据库的尼日利亚时间序列数据，在测试该系列的趋势属性之后，在1981年和2019年之间使用Pesaran的ARDL回归方法。回归结果的有效性和可靠性由回归诊断认证。调查结果支持私人消费支出和出口对经济增长的显着积极影响，而政府消费支出和进口对增长产生了显着的负面影响。这两项支出既不明显扩大经济也没有明显扩张，也没有减少私人消费支出的积极影响和出口的负面影响是微不足道的。对政府消费支出和进口制造业的负面影响并不重要。然而，发现经济增长明显扩大制造业活动。我们得出结论，超过三分之二的国内产品支出构成了经济泄漏，以推动制造业扩张。从制造业到其他经济部门的生长增强外部性流动的结果可能会限制未来的经济增长或使经济以不可持续的方式生长。

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