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A SIAT 3HE model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bergamo, Italy

机译：一个siat 3 他在意大利贝加莫的Covid-19大流行模型

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摘要

The aim of this article is to give a better understanding of the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the Bergamo province (Italy), one of the most hit areas of the world, between February and April 2020. A new compartmental model, called SIAT3HE, was designed and fitted on accurate data about the pandemic provided by ATS Bergamo, the health protection agency of the Bergamo province. Our results show that SARS-CoV-2 reached Bergamo in January and infected 318,000 people, the 28.8% of the province population. The 43.1% of the infected individuals stayed asymptomatic. As 6,028 people died due to COVID-19 till April 30th, the infection fatality ratio of SARS-CoV-2 in the Bergamo province was 1.9%. These results are in very good agreement with available information: the number of infections is consistent with the results of recent serological surveys and the number of deaths due to COVID-19 is close to the excess mortality of the considered period.
机译：本文的目的是更好地了解2月和4月20日期间世界上最受欢迎的地区的SARS-COV-2大流行病的动态。一个新的隔间模型 呼吁SIAT3HE，是在贝加莫省卫生保护局ATS Bergamo提供的关于大流行的准确数据。 我们的研究结果表明，SARS-COV-2于1月份到达贝加莫，感染了318,000人，占全省人口的28.8％。 43.1％的受感染的个体保持无症状。 由于6,028人因Covid-19直到4月30日而死亡，贝加莫省SARS-COV-2的感染致命比率为1.9％。 这些结果与可用信息非常好的协议：感染的数量与最近血清学调查的结果一致，并且Covid-19引起的死亡人数接近考虑期的过度死亡率。

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