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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Statistics and Probability >A Multi-stages Decision Approach for Managerial Flexibility of Energy R&D Project under Fuzzy Environment
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A Multi-stages Decision Approach for Managerial Flexibility of Energy R&D Project under Fuzzy Environment

机译：模糊环境下的能源R＆amp的管理灵活性的多阶段决策方法

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In recent years, many countries and firms seek the new and renewable energy to cope with the impending global environmental crisis, such as depletion of fossil-based energy, climate change to control emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper aims to take the perspective of the firm, which undertakes the energy RD project to maximize profits implying minimization of total cost as well. Incorporating technical and market risks into energy RD project is crucial, in that the managers often face the rapidly changing environment full of uncertainties. The firms should incorporate managerial flexibility into energy RD project decision not only reducing uncertain risks, but also increasing potential market payoff. This research considers a multi-stages decision model in which real-option-based analysis is applied for energy RD project under fuzzy environment. Specifically, the market payoff is obtained when the new and renewable energy product is commercialized to market, while energy RD investment costs are exhausted gradually. Furthermore, the uncertain development performance and market information are described as fuzzy variables by credibility theory. Instead of the traditional real option pricing methods, the dynamic programming methodology that captures the uncertain product development performance and final market return is developed to more effectively characterize the managerial flexibility. This method can reflect the multi-stages nature of RD programme, while helping decision-makers take the optimal investment decision and capture future market opportunities of energy products.
机译：近年来，许多国家和企业都在寻求新的和可再生能源，以应对即将发生的全球环境危机，例如耗尽化石的能源，气候变化，以控制温室气体排放。本文旨在采取公司的视角，该公司承担能源r d项目，以最大限度地提高利润，这意味着最小化总成本。将技术和市场风险纳入能源R D项目至关重要，因为管理人员经常面临着充满不确定性的快速变化的环境。该公司应将管理灵活性纳入能源r d项目决策不仅减少了不确定的风险，而且还增加了潜在的市场回报。该研究考虑了一种多级决策模型，其中基于型号的分析应用于模糊环境下的能量R D项目。具体而言，当新的和可再生能源产品商业化到市场时，获得市场收益，而能源r d投资成本逐渐耗尽。此外，不确定的发展性能和市场信息被信誉理论被描述为模糊变量。而不是传统的真实期权定价方法，制定了捕获不确定产品开发性能和最终市场回报的动态编程方法，以更有效地表征管理灵活性。这种方法可以反映R D计划的多阶级性质，同时帮助决策者采取最佳的投资决策并捕获能源产品的未来市场机会。

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