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Insuring against earthquakes: simulating the cost-effectiveness of disaster preparedness

机译:防震:模拟备灾的成本效益

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Ex-ante measures to improve risk preparedness for natural disasters are generally considered to be more effective than ex-post measures. Nevertheless, most resources are allocated after an event in geographical areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters. This paper analyses the cost-effectiveness of ex-ante adaptation measures in the wake of earthquakes and provides an assessment of the future role of private and public agencies in disaster risk management. The study uses a simulation model approach to evaluate consumption losses after earthquakes under different scenarios of intervention. Particular attention is given to the role of activity diversification measures in enhancing disaster preparedness and the contributions of (targeted) microcredit and education programmes for reconstruction following a disaster. Whereas the former measures are far more cost-effective, missing markets and perverse incentives tend to make ex-post measures a preferred option, thus occasioning underinvestment in ex-ante adaptation initiatives.
机译:人们普遍认为,事前采取措施提高自然灾害风险防范能力比事后采取措施更为有效。尽管如此,事件发生后,大多数资源是在易受自然灾害影响的地理区域分配的。本文分析了地震后事前适应措施的成本效益,并评估了私营和公共机构在灾害风险管理中的未来作用。该研究使用模拟模型方法来评估地震在不同干预方案下的消费损失。特别关注活动多样化措施在增强备灾能力方面的作用,以及(目标)小额信贷和教育计划对灾后重建的贡献。尽管前一种措施更具成本效益,但市场缺失和不正当激励措施倾向于使事后措施成为首选方案,从而使事前适应举措的投资不足。

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