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The statistical reconciliation of time series of accounts between two benchmark revisions

机译：两次基准修订之间的帐户时间序列的统计核对

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The 2003–2007 U.S. annual input–output accounts, GDPby- industry accounts, and expenditure-based GDP are reconciled with the 2002 and 2007 quinquennial benchmarks and all contemporaneous constraints of the input–output accounts for the in-between years. The reconciliation is performed at a very detailed level (six-digit NAICS) according to feasible statistical procedures able to deal with very large systems of accounts. Our objective is to adjust the preliminary levels of the annual 2003–2007 series such that they are consistentwith the quinquennial benchmarks available, fulfill all the accounting relationships for any given year, and show movements that are as close as possible to the preliminary information.We use a simultaneous least-squares procedure based on the proportional first difference criterion, a well known movement preservation principle proposed by Denton. We evaluate the possible adoption of (i) a pure proportional (PROP) adjustment for small series and series with both negative and positive values that deteriorate the meaningfulness of growth rates, and (ii) a priori assumptions for groups of variables according to their different reliabilities, where this can reasonably be imposed.
机译：2003-2007年美国年度投入产出账目，按行业划分的GDP账目和基于支出的GDP均与2002年和2007年的五年基准相吻合，并且在这几年间，投入产出账目的所有同期限制都得到了调整。根据能够处理非常大的帐户系统的可行统计程序，对帐在非常详细的级别（六位数NAICS）上进行。我们的目标是调整2003-2007年度系列的初步水平，使其与可用的五年基准保持一致，满足任何给定年份的所有会计关系，并显示与初始信息尽可能接近的变动。使用基于比例一阶差准则的同时最小二乘法，这是Denton提出的众所周知的运动保留原理。我们评估（i）对小数列和具有负值和正值的小数列进行纯正比例（PROP）调整的可能性，这会恶化增长率的意义，并且（ii）根据变量的不同对变量组进行先验假设可以合理施加的可靠性。

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