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A method of ecological and economic risk assessment during the development of the shelf based on mathematical modelling

机译:基于数学建模的货架开发过程中生态经济风险评估方法

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摘要

This paper proposes a method of mathematical modelling of ecological risk based on a synthesis of dynamic and probabilistic risk assessment techniques. The probability of assessment of an acceptable probability of an anthropogenic impact to minimize economic costs is proposed. The dependence of an acceptable probability of an anthropogenic impact on the ecological risk is demonstrated with an example calculation. The results of the modelling of the state of a shelf ecosystem based on the dynamic model are used for the calculation as source information. Based on this synthesis, the calculation results bring about the opportunity to balance ecological-economic goals of achieving safe development of the shelf and to satisfy the involuntary necessity to reduce the costs on environmental protection measures, while maintaining the priority of environmental requirements.
机译:本文提出了一种基于动态和概率风险评估技术综合的生态风险数学建模方法。建议对人为影响的可接受概率进行评估,以最大程度地降低经济成本。通过实例计算证明了人为影响的可接受概率对生态风险的依赖性。基于动态模型对架子生态系统状态进行建模的结果用作源信息进行计算。在此综合的基础上,计算结果为平衡生态经济目标以实现货架的安全发展提供了机会,并满足了在降低环境保护措施成本的同时保持环境要求优先的非自愿必要性。

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  • 来源
    《Doklady Earth Sciences》 |2015年第1期|992-996|共5页
  • 作者单位

    Russian Acad Sci, PP Shirshov Oceanol Inst, Moscow 117997, Russia;

    Russian Acad Sci, PP Shirshov Oceanol Inst, Moscow 117997, Russia;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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