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Stochastic procedure for the simulation of synthetic main shock-aftershock ground motion sequences

机译：模拟合成主震余震地面运动序列的随机过程

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摘要

According to the current seismic codes, structures are designed to resist the first damaging earthquake during their service life. However, after a strong main shock, a structure may still face damaging aftershocks. The main shock-aftershock sequence may result in major damage and eventually the collapse of a structure. Current studies on seismic hazard mainly focus on the modeling and simulation of main shocks. This paper proposes a 3-step procedure to generate main shock-aftershock sequences of pairs of horizontal components of a ground motion at a site of interest. The first step generates ground motions for the main shock using either a source-based or site-based model. The second step generates sequences of aftershocks' magnitudes, locations, and times of occurrence using either a fault-based or seismicity-based model. The third step simulates pairs of ground motion components using a new empirical model proposed in this paper. We develop prediction equations for the controlling parameters of a ground motion model, where the predictors are the site condition and the aftershock characteristics from the second step. The coefficients in the prediction equations and the correlation between the model parameters (of the 2 horizontal components of 1 record and of several records in 1 sequence) are estimated using a database of aftershock accelerograms. A backward stepwise deletion method is used to simplify the initial candidate prediction equations and avoid overfitting the data. The procedure, based on easily identifiable engineering parameters, is a useful tool to incorporate effects of aftershocks into seismic analysis and design.
机译：根据当前的地震法规，结构被设计为在其使用寿命期间抵抗第一次破坏性地震。但是，在遭受强烈的主冲击后，结构可能仍会面临破坏性的余震。主要的余震序列可能会导致严重损坏，最终导致建筑物倒塌。当前关于地震危害的研究主要集中在主震的建模和仿真上。本文提出了一个分三步的程序，以在感兴趣的位置生成地面运动的成对水平分量的主要余震序列。第一步，使用基于源模型或基于站点的模型来生成主震的地面运动。第二步使用基于故障的模型或基于地震活动性的模型生成余震大小，位置和发生时间的序列。第三步使用本文提出的新的经验模型来模拟成对的地面运动分量。我们为地面运动模型的控制参数开发了预测方程，其中预测因子是第二步的现场条件和余震特征。使用余震加速度图数据库估算预测方程中的系数以及模型参数（1条记录的2个水平分量和1条序列的若干条记录）之间的相关性。向后逐步删除方法用于简化初始候选预测方程式并避免数据过度拟合。该程序基于易于识别的工程参数，是将余震影响纳入地震分析和设计的有用工具。

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