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A critical examination of seismic response uncertainty analysis in earthquake engineering

机译：地震工程中地震响应不确定性分析的严格检验

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摘要

The last decade of performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) research has seen a rapidly increasing emphasis placed on the explicit quantification of uncertainties. This paper examines uncertainty consideration in input ground-motion and numerical seismic response analyses as part of PBEE, with particular attention given to the physical consistency and completeness of uncertainty consideration. It is argued that the use of the commonly adopted incremental dynamic analysis leads to a biased representation of the seismic intensity and that when considering the number of ground motions to be used in seismic response analyses, attention should be given to both reducing parameter estimation uncertainty and also limiting ground-motion selection bias. Research into uncertainties in system-specific numerical seismic response analysis models to date has been largely restricted to the consideration of 'low-level' constitutive model parameter uncertainties. However, 'high-level' constitutive model and model methodology uncertainties are likely significant and therefore represent a key research area in the coming years. It is also argued that the common omission of high-level seismic response analysis modelling uncertainties leads to a fallacy that ground-motion uncertainty is more significant than numerical modelling uncertainty. The author's opinion of the role of uncertainty analysis in PBEE is also presented.
机译：基于性能的地震工程（PBEE）研究的最近十年，对不确定性的明确量化越来越重视。本文研究了作为PBEE一部分的输入地震动和数值地震响应分析中的不确定性考虑，特别注意不确定性考虑的物理一致性和完整性。有人认为，通常采用的增量动力分析的使用会导致地震烈度的偏差，并且在考虑地震响应分析中使用的地震动次数时，应同时注意减少参数估计的不确定性和还限制了地面运动选择的偏见。迄今为止，在特定于系统的数值地震响应分析模型中对不确定性的研究主要限于考虑“低级”本构模型参数不确定性。但是，“高级”本构模型和模型方法的不确定性可能很重要，因此成为未来几年的关键研究领域。也有人认为，高层地震响应分析建模不确定性的普遍遗漏导致一个谬论，即地震动不确定性比数值建模不确定性更为重要。还提出了作者对不确定性分析在PBEE中的作用的看法。

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