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Analysis of the sources of uncertainty for portfolio-level earthquake loss estimation

机译：组合震级估算的不确定性来源分析

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Earthquake catastrophe models provide probabilistic estimations of building portfolio losses that result from seismic hazards. Models that are designed to be used with large numbers of buildings often implicitly account for uncertainty associated with model components, but do not allow for an explicit comparison of different sources of uncertainty. We propose probabilistic methodologies that allow for explicit differentiation of the uncertainty in estimated portfolio losses as a function of the uncertainties associated with seismic hazard and building vulnerability. Our work is motivated by recent earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan, which highlighted the importance of understanding the sources of uncertainty that contribute to portfolio-level loss estimates. The proposed methodologies allow us to differentiate seismic risk between building portfolios as a function of the level of knowledge (epistemic) uncertainty associated with modeling seismic rates and the levels of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty associated with the buildings' vulnerabilities. A sample analysis incorporates epistemic uncertainty corresponding to Southern California's seismic rates into modeled losses for a Southern California building portfolio and then compares the impact of that particular source of uncertainty to the results from a portfolio in Northern California. For sources of uncertainty associated with buildings' vulnerability, we use our methodology to compare the impacts of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on estimated portfolio losses as a function of the buildings' attributes, including their types of construction and numbers of stories. Component uncertainties (i.e., uncertainties corresponding to the seismic hazard and vulnerability) are assumed for our analyses so that the methodologies can be demonstrated.
机译：地震灾难模型提供了由地震危险造成的建筑物资产损失的概率估计。设计用于大量建筑物的模型通常隐式考虑与模型组件相关的不确定性，但不允许对不同不确定性源进行显式比较。我们提出了一种概率方法，该方法允许将估计的资产组合损失中的不确定性作为与地震危险和建筑物易损性相关的不确定性的函数进行明确区分。我们的工作是受新西兰和日本最近发生的地震的推动，这些地震突显了理解影响投资组合水平损失估计的不确定性来源的重要性。所提出的方法使我们能够根据与地震率建模相关的知识（认知）不确定性水平以及与建筑物脆弱性相关的偶然变异性和认知不确定性水平，来区分建筑物组合之间的地震风险。样本分析将与南加州地震发生率相对应的认知不确定性纳入到南加州建筑投资组合的模型损失中，然后将该特定不确定性源的影响与北加州投资组合的结果进行比较。对于与建筑物脆弱性相关的不确定性来源，我们使用我们的方法比较了不确定性和认知不确定性对估计资产损失的影响，这些损失是建筑物属性的函数，包括建筑物的类型和楼层数。假设成分不确定性（即与地震危险性和脆弱性相对应的不确定性）可用于我们的分析，以便可以论证方法。

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