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Peak-over-threshold: Quantifying ground motion beyond design

机译：阈值峰值：量化超出设计的地面运动

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In performance-based seismic design, as adopted by several building codes worldwide, the structural performance is verified against ground motions that have predetermined exceedance return periods at the site of interest. Such a return period is evaluated by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the corresponding ground motion is often represented by the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). The structural performance for ground motions larger than those considered in this design approach is, typically, not explicitly controlled under the assumption that they are sufficiently rare. On one hand, this does not achieve uniform safety at sites characterized by different design ground motions corresponding to the same return period; on the other hand, exceedances of the design spectra are systematically observed over large areas, for example in Italy. The latter issue is because of the nature of UHS, the exceedance of which is likely-to-almost-certain when the construction site is in the epicentral area of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes (ie, the design spectrum may be not conservative at these locations), especially if PSHA is based on seismic source zones. The former is partially because of the systematic difference of ground motions for return periods larger than the design one at the different sites. Quantification of the expected ground motion given the exceedance of the design ground motions (ie, the recently introduced as the expected peak-over-threshold or POT) can be of help in quantitatively assessing these issues. In the study, a procedure to compute the POT distribution is derived first; second, POT spectra are introduced and used to help understanding why and how seismic structural reliability of code-conforming structures decreases as the seismic hazard of the site increases; third, expected and 95(th) percentile POT maps are shown for Italy to discuss how much high hazard sites are exposed to much larger peak-over-threshold with respect to mid-hazard and low-hazard sites; finally the POT is discussed with respect to the slope of the hazard curve (in log-log scale) at the threshold, a known proxy for ground motion beyond design. All data presented in the maps are made available for the interested reader as a supplemental archive.
机译：在基于性能的抗震设计中，全球范围内的一些建筑规范都采用了抗震设计，对结构性能进行了验证，以验证在感兴趣位置具有预定超限返回周期的地震动。通过概率地震危险性分析（PSHA）评估这种返回期，并且相应的地面运动通常由统一危险性谱（UHS）表示。通常，在地震动比这种设计方法考虑的要大的情况下，其结构性能并未得到明确控制。一方面，在以相同的返回周期对应的不同设计地面运动为特征的现场，这不能实现统一的安全性；另一方面，在大范围内（例如在意大利）有系统地观察到设计频谱超出范围。后一个问题是由于UHS的性质，当建筑工地位于中到高地震的震中区域时，UHS的超出可能是几乎肯定的（即，设计范围可能并不保守）在这些位置），尤其是在PSHA基于地震震源区的情况下。前者的部分原因是在不同地点，地面运动在返回周期大于设计周期时的系统差异。考虑到超过设计地面运动（即，最近引入的预期峰值阈值或POT），对预期地面运动的量化将有助于定量评估这些问题。在这项研究中，首先得出了计算POT分布的程序。其次，引入了POT光谱，并用来帮助理解为什么符合规范的结构的地震结构可靠性以及如何随着现场地震危险性的增加而降低；分别显示了意大利的第三个，预期的和第95个百分位的POT地图，以讨论相对于中危险和低危险场所，有多少高危险场所暴露于更大的峰值以上阈值；最后，针对危险曲线的斜率（以对数-对数标度）在阈值处进行了讨论，POT是地面运动超出设计的已知代理。地图上显示的所有数据均作为补充存档提供给有兴趣的读者。

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