Variance-based sensitivity analyses and uncertainty quantification for FEMA P-58 consequence predictions

Cremen Gemma; Baker Jack W.

摘要

Earthquake loss assessment procedures for individual buildings can be a useful tool for various stakeholders, including building owners, insurers, and lenders. However, it is often not possible to provide complete information for the required inputs to these procedures because there is substantial cost and effort associated with gathering necessary data. It is therefore important to understand how different inputs to these procedures (building information/ground shaking intensity) impact the loss predictions. This can be done via sensitivity analyses. We conduct variance-based sensitivity analyses for the FEMA P-58 methodology, a building-specific seismic performance assessment procedure that is making its way into seismic design and risk analysis practice. We determine how variations in different input variables of the methodology affect predictions of building loss ratio and reoccupancy time, and benchmark calculated sensitivities using the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation methodology . We also quantify additional uncertainty in consequence predictions caused by uncertainty in input variables. We use an example site in downtown Los Angeles and consider a 7-story and a 14-story building. Of the six inputs considered in the analyses, building loss ratio predictions are most sensitive to shaking intensity and building age, while reoccupancy time predictions are most sensitive to shaking intensity and the type of lateral system/building period. The largest additional uncertainties in building loss ratio predictions are caused by the building's lateral system or age (or both) being unknown. The results of this study provide an enhanced understanding of the interaction between inputs and consequence predictions of the P-58 methodology.

机译：各种建筑物的地震损失评估程序可以是各种利益攸关方的有用工具，包括建筑业主，保险公司和贷方。但是，通常无法为这些程序提供所需输入的完整信息，因为与收集必要的数据有很大的成本和精力。因此，重要的是要了解对这些程序的不同输入（建筑信息/地面摇动强度）影响损失预测。这可以通过灵敏度分析来完成。我们对FEMA P-58方法进行了基于方差的敏感性分析，这是一种特定于建筑的地震性能评估程序，正在进行地震设计和风险分析实践。我们确定方法的不同输入变量的变化如何影响建筑物损失比和再锁定时间的预测，以及使用烟草地震损失估计方法的基准计算的敏感性。我们还规定了在输入变量中不确定性引起的后果预测中的额外不确定性。我们在洛杉矶市中心使用示例网站，并考虑一个7层和14层的建筑。在分析中考虑的六种输入中，建筑物损失比预测对振动强度和建筑年龄最敏感，而再循环时间预测对摇动强度和横向系统/建筑周期的类型最敏感。建筑物损失比例预测的最大额外不确定性是由建筑物的横向系统或年龄（或两年）未知。本研究的结果提供了对P-58方法的输入与后果预测之间的相互作用的理解。

Variance-based sensitivity analyses and uncertainty quantification for FEMA P-58 consequence predictions

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