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Shake table testing of a rocking podium: Results of a blind prediction contest

机译：摇摆讲台的摇动表测试：盲目预测比赛的结果

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摘要

Rocking motion is sensitive to the boundary and initial conditions of a rocking structure, making experiments nonrepeatable. Thus, the claims that numerical rocking motion models are not only inaccurate but that all rocking structures behave unpredictably. Hence, rocking is not used as a seismic design approach. This paper revisits the issue of rocking motion unpredictability. Seismic behavior of structures is inherently stochastic, because the loading is stochastic. Therefore, the question of interest is not whether models can predict the seismic response to a single ground motion, but if the statistical characteristics of the ensemble of responses to a set of ground motions that define the seismic hazard can be predicted. For this purpose, a rocking podium, which is a three-dimensional structure comprising an aluminum slab supported by four tubular steel columns, was tested on a shake table excited by two sets of 100 consistently generated ground motions. It was found that the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the experimentally obtained displacements is statistically stable. Next, a blind prediction contest was organized. The contestants were invited to predict the CDFs of the slab lateral displacement. They were able to predict the slab displacement CDF relatively well. Both finite element and discrete element modeling approaches were used, but no clear pattern emerged as it was found that the performance of either approach depends on the input parameters used and the assumptions made. It was also observed that the contestants who did not use Rayleigh damping in their models produced better predictions.
机译：摇摆运动对摇摆结构的边界和初始条件敏感，使实验不可重复。因此，该权利要求：数值摇摆运动模型不仅是不准确的，而且所有摇摆结构行为不可预测地。因此，摇摆不用作地震设计方法。本文重新审视了摇摆运动不可预测的问题。结构的地震行为本质上是随机的，因为装载是随机的。因此，感兴趣的问题不是模型是否可以预测对单个地面运动的地震响应，而是如果可以预测对定义地震危害的一组接地运动的响应的统计特征。为此目的，在由四个管状钢柱支撑的铝板的三维结构上，在由两组100个始终产生的地面运动激发的摇动台上测试了一种摇摆讲台。发现实验所获得的位移的累积分布函数（CDF）是统计上稳定的。接下来，组织了盲目预测竞赛。参赛者被邀请预测板坯横向位移的CDF。他们能够预测平板位移CDF相对良好。使用有限元和离散元素建模方法，但没有出现明确的模式，发现任一方法的性能取决于所使用的输入参数和所做的假设。还观察到，在模型中没有使用瑞利阻尼的参赛者产生了更好的预测。

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