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Risk estimation of the disaster waste generated by both ground motion and tsunami due to the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake

机译：由于南开槽地震预期，地面运动和海啸产生的灾害浪费风险估算

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摘要

The amount of disaster waste is one of the most important performance indicators in quantifying the resilience of a community. In fact, disaster waste can have significant negative impacts on the environment in affected regions and hinder the postdisaster recovery process. Appropriate disaster waste management should be developed in Japan before the occurrence of the Nankai Trough earthquake. It is expected that the seismic and tsunami intensities caused by the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake will be substantially larger than those caused by the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. In this paper, a risk-based methodology is presented for estimating the amount of disaster waste generated by both the ground motions and the tsunami due to the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake. First, Monte Carlo simulation-based probabilistic hazard analyses are performed to obtain seismic and tsunami hazard curves considering the uncertainty associated with fault movement along the Nankai Trough. Structural damage data associated with past earthquakes are used to develop seismic and tsunami fragility curves. The amount of disaster waste generated from a single structure is defined as the generation unit and is determined based on past disasters. Finally, with the aid of a geographic information system, the risk of disaster waste can be estimated using the hazard and fragility curves and the generation units. As an illustrative example, the risk curves and expected values associated with disaster waste in Mie Prefecture, Japan, are estimated based on the proposed framework.
机译：灾难浪费的数量是量化社区恢复性最重要的表现指标之一。事实上，灾难浪费可能对受影响地区的环境产生显着的负面影响，并阻碍了邮政恢复过程。在南开槽地震发生之前，应在日本开发适当的灾害废物管理。预计由预期的南开槽地震引起的地震和海啸强度将比2011年大东日本地震造成的地震造成的震荡。在本文中，提出了一种基于风险的方法，用于估算由于预期的南开槽地震而产生的地面运动和海啸产生的灾害浪费量。首先，考虑与南开槽的故障运动相关的不确定性，进行基于蒙特卡罗模拟的概率危险分析。与过去地震相关的结构损伤数据用于开发地震和海啸脆弱曲线。从单个结构产生的灾难量被定义为生成单元，基于过去的灾害确定。最后，借助地理信息系统，可以使用危险和脆弱曲线和生成单元估算灾难浪费的风险。作为说明性示例，基于所提出的框架估算日本中麦县的灾区风险曲线和预期值。

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