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A model-based framework for assessing the vulnerability of low dispersal vertebrates to landscape fragmentation under environmental change

机译：基于模型的框架，用于评估环境变化下低扩散脊椎动物对景观破碎化的脆弱性

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摘要

Environmental changes are driving rapid geographic shifts of suitable environmental conditions for species. These might survive by tracking those shifts, however successful responses will depend on the spatial distribution of suitable habitats (current and future) and on their connectivity. Most herptiles (i.e., amphibians and reptiles) have low dispersal abilities, and therefore herptiles are among the most vulnerable groups to environmental changes. Here we assessed the vulnerability of herptile species to future climate and land use changes in fragmented landscapes. We developed and tested a methodological approach combining the strengths of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and of functional connectivity analysis. First, using SDMs we forecasted current and future distributions of potential suitable areas as well as range dynamics for four herptile species in Portugal. SDM forecasts for 2050 were obtained under two contrasting emission scenarios, translated into moderate (low-emissions scenario) or large (high-emissions scenario) changes in climate and land use conditions. Then, we calculated and analysed functional connectivity from areas projected to lose environmental suitability towards areas keeping suitable conditions. Landscape matrix resistance and barrier effects of the national motorway network were incorporated as the main sources of fragmentation. Potential suitable area was projected to decrease under future conditions for most test species, with the high-emissions scenario amplifying the losses or gains. Spatiotemporal patterns of connectivity between potentially suitable areas signalled the most important locations for maintaining linkages and migration corridors, as well as potential conflicts due to overlaps with the current motorway network. By integrating SDM projections with functional connectivity analysis, we were able to assess and map the vulnerability of distinct herptile species to isolation or extinction under environmental change scenarios. Our framework provides valuable information, with fairly low data requirements, for optimizing biodiversity management and mitigation efforts, aiming to reduce the complex and often synergistic negative impacts of multiple environmental change drivers. Implications for conservation planning and management are discussed from a global change adaptation perspective. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：环境变化正在推动针对物种的合适环境条件的快速地理变化。这些可能会通过追踪这些变化而幸存下来，但是成功的应对措施将取决于合适的栖息地（当前和未来）的空间分布及其连通性。大多数疱疹（即两栖动物和爬行动物）具有较低的扩散能力，因此，疱疹是最容易受到环境变化影响的群体之一。在这里，我们评估了放牧物种对零散景观中未来气候和土地利用变化的脆弱性。我们开发并测试了一种结合了物种分布模型（SDM）和功能连接分析优势的方法论方法。首先，通过使用SDM，我们预测了葡萄牙四个Herptile物种当前和未来的潜在合适区域分布以及范围动态。在两种截然不同的排放情景下获得了2050年SDM预测，这些情景被转换为气候和土地使用条件的适度（低排放情景）或大（高排放情景）变化。然后，我们计算并分析了从预计会失去环境适应性的区域到保持适当条件的区域的功能连接性。国家高速公路网络的景观基体抗性和屏障效应被纳入了破碎的主要来源。预计在将来的条件下，对于大多数测试物种来说，潜在的合适面积将减少，而高排放情景会放大损失或增加。潜在合适区域之间的连通性的时空模式表明，保持联系和迁徙走廊的最重要位置，以及与当前高速公路网重叠导致的潜在冲突。通过将SDM预测与功能连通性分析相集成，我们能够评估和绘制环境变化情景下不同牧草物种易受隔离或灭绝的脆弱性。我们的框架提供了宝贵的信息，但对数据的需求却很低，用于优化生物多样性管理和缓解工作，旨在减少多种环境变化驱动因素带来的复杂且通常是协同的负面影响。从全球变化适应的角度讨论了保护规划和管理的意义。 （C）2016 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Ecological Complexity》 |2016年第12期|174-186|共13页
  • 作者

    Goncalves Joao; Honrado Joao P.; Vicente Joana R.; Civantos Emilio;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Porto, InBIO GBIO, Res Ctr Biodivers & Genet Resources, Campus Agrario Vairao,Rua Padre Armando Quintas 7, P-4485661 Vairao, Portugal|Univ Porto, Fac Ciencias, Rua Campo Alegre,FC4 Bldg, P-4169007 Oporto, Portugal;

    Univ Porto, InBIO GBIO, Res Ctr Biodivers & Genet Resources, Campus Agrario Vairao,Rua Padre Armando Quintas 7, P-4485661 Vairao, Portugal|Univ Porto, Fac Ciencias, Rua Campo Alegre,FC4 Bldg, P-4169007 Oporto, Portugal;

    Univ Porto, InBIO GBIO, Res Ctr Biodivers & Genet Resources, Campus Agrario Vairao,Rua Padre Armando Quintas 7, P-4485661 Vairao, Portugal|Univ Porto, Fac Ciencias, Rua Campo Alegre,FC4 Bldg, P-4169007 Oporto, Portugal;

    Univ Porto, InBIO GBIO, Res Ctr Biodivers & Genet Resources, Campus Agrario Vairao,Rua Padre Armando Quintas 7, P-4485661 Vairao, Portugal|CSIC, Inst Invest Recursos Cineget IREC, Ronda Toledo S-N, Ciudad Real 13071, Spain;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Climate change; Functional connectivity; Species distribution models; Amphibians; Reptiles; Impact assessment; Land use change;

    机译：气候变化;功能连通性;物种分布模型;两栖动物;爬行动物;影响评估;土地利用变化;

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