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Do drought management plans reduce drought risk? A risk assessment model for a Mediterranean river basin

机译：干旱管理计划是否可以降低干旱风险？地中海流域的风险评估模型

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摘要

Groundwater resources are traditionally overexploited in arid and drought-prone regions with profitable irrigated agriculture, and the depletion of this groundwater results from a combination of the physical scarcity of surface sources and the lack of effective control of use rights on the part of water authorities. This is the case in the Segura River Basin of southern Spain. As a result, drought risks and structural deficits have steadily increased over the last 50 years. The Drought Management Plan recently approved by the Segura River Basin Authority aims to enforce more stringent water supply restrictions from surface sources, but the plan does not include any explicit policy to handle illegal groundwater abstraction. By using a stochastic risk assessment model, this paper shows that the implementation of the drought plan will increase the expected irrigation deficits of surface water and can, paradoxically, lead to higher drought and aquifer depletion risks than the traditional rules that the new plan replaces.
机译：传统上，在干旱和干旱多发地区，灌溉农业有利可图，地下水资源被过度开采，地表水的物理稀缺和水权部门缺乏对使用权的有效控制，是造成地下水枯竭的原因。西班牙南部的塞古拉河流域就是这种情况。结果，在过去的50年中，干旱风险和结构性缺陷不断增加。塞古拉河流域管理局最近批准的《干旱管理计划》旨在从地表水源实施更严格的供水限制，但该计划未包含任何处理非法取水的明确政策。通过使用随机风险评估模型，本文表明干旱计划的实施将增加预期的地表水灌溉赤字，并且与新计划取代的传统规则相比，自相矛盾的是，这可能导致更高的干旱和含水层枯竭风险。

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  • 来源
    《Ecological Economics》 |2012年第4期|p.42-48|共7页
  • 作者

    Carlos Mario Gomez Gomez; Carlos Dionisio Perez Blanco;

  • 作者单位

    University of Atcald de Henares, Spain. Piaza de la Victoria, 2.28802 Alcald de Henares, Madrid, Spain Madrid Institute of Advanced Studies (IMDEA-Water), C/Punto Net, 4, Edificio ZYE, Parque dentifico Tecnoldgico de la Universidad de Alcala, 28805 Aicala de Henares, Madrid, Spain;

    University of Atcald de Henares, Spain. Piaza de la Victoria, 2.28802 Alcald de Henares, Madrid, Spain Madrid Institute of Advanced Studies (IMDEA-Water), C/Punto Net, 4, Edificio ZYE, Parque dentifico Tecnoldgico de la Universidad de Alcala, 28805 Aicala de Henares, Madrid, Spain;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    water economics; risk management; drought management; mediterranean river basins;

    机译：水经济学;风险管理;干旱管理;地中海流域;

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