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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological indicators >Can energy policies affect the cycle of carbon emissions? Case study on the energy consumption of industrial terminals in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang
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Can energy policies affect the cycle of carbon emissions? Case study on the energy consumption of industrial terminals in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang

机译：能源政策会影响碳排放的周期吗？上海，江苏，浙江工业码头能耗案例研究

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摘要

This paper proposes an approach to calculate the time series of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions between 1995 and 2014 based on industrial energy consumption data in three Eastern China jurisdictions in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang during these two decades. Using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the fluctuation components of the cumulative CO2-emission time-series data in the three provinces are obtained. Subsequently, a grey correlation-based change-point search algorithm is used to determine change-points in these data. Additionally, the CO2-emission time-series is divided into stages based on the change-points. The cycle characteristics of national energy policies, laws, and regulations are compared with those of the cumulative CO2 emission cycle of the three provinces to analyse the impact of energy policies on CO2 emissions. This study shows that, although the industrial structure and trends in the CO2 emission time-series data of the three provinces are different, their cumulative CO2-emission cycle remains the same from 1995 to 2014. The variation characteristics of the cumulative CO2 emissions for each cycle during this period are well aligned with the stage characteristics of energy policies, laws, and regulations, indicating that energy policies play a consistent role in regulating such emissions. This study examines low-carbon production and sustainable energy development, and offers suggestions for issuing and perfecting energy policies, laws, and regulations, considering the indicators of energy consumption and CO2 emissions.
机译：本文提出了一种方法，根据这两个十年来华东三个辖区（上海，江苏和浙江）的工业能耗数据，计算1995年至2014年之间累积二氧化碳（CO2）排放的时间序列。使用Hodrick-Prescott过滤器，获得了三个省份中累积的CO2排放时间序列数据的波动成分。随后，基于灰色关联的变化点搜索算法用于确定这些数据中的变化点。此外，CO2排放时间序列根据更改点分为多个阶段。将国家能源政策，法律法规的周期特征与三个省份的累积CO2排放周期的周期特征进行比较，以分析能源政策对CO2排放的影响。这项研究表明，尽管三个省的工业结构和二氧化碳排放时间序列数据的趋势不同，但它们的累积二氧化碳排放周期在1995年至2014年期间保持不变。每个省的累积二氧化碳排放变化特征此期间的循环与能源政策，法律和法规的阶段特征完全吻合，表明能源政策在调节此类排放方面起着一致的作用。这项研究考察了低碳生产和可持续能源发展，并考虑到能耗和二氧化碳排放指标，为发布和完善能源政策，法律和法规提供了建议。

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  • 来源
    《Ecological indicators》 |2017年第12期|1-12|共12页
  • 作者

    Wang Lihong; Gong Zaiwu; Gao Ge; Wang Changkai;

  • 作者单位

    Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;

    Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    CO2-emission indicators; Energy policy; Grey change-point; Search algorithm; Hodrick-Prescott filter;

    机译：二氧化碳排放指标能源政策灰色变化点搜索算法Hodrick-Prescott过滤器;

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