• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Ecological indicators >Ecological footprint simulation and prediction by ARIMA model-A case study in Henan Province of China
【24h】

Ecological footprint simulation and prediction by ARIMA model-A case study in Henan Province of China

机译：ARIMA模型的生态足迹模拟与预测-以河南省为例

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Ecological footprint (EF), as one of the sustainable development indicators, has received considerable attention. However, it has mostly been used as a static indicator. The accurate quantitative analysis on its development trend is still rare. Thus, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was introduced to enhance the forecasting capacity of EF indicator. Taking Henan Province of China as a study area, we firstly computed the EF and the ecological carrying capacity (EC) in 1949-2006. Based on the computed results, the simulating process of the ARIMA model and the fitting and forecasting results were explained in detail. The final results demonstrated that ARIMA model could be used effectively in the simulation and prediction of EF and the predicted EF could help the decision-makers make a package of better planning for regional ecological balance or sustainable future.
机译：作为可持续发展指标之一的生态足迹已受到相当多的关注。但是，它主要用作静态指示器。关于其发展趋势的准确定量分析仍然很少。因此，引入了自回归综合移动平均线（ARIMA）模型以增强EF指标的预测能力。以中国河南省为研究区域，首先计算了1949-2006年的生态系统因子和生态承载力。根据计算结果，详细解释了ARIMA模型的仿真过程以及拟合和预测结果。最终结果表明，ARIMA模型可以有效地用于生态系统的模拟和预测，而预测的生态系统可以帮助决策者为区域生态平衡或可持续未来做出更好的规划。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Ecological indicators》 |2010年第2期|538-544|共7页
  • 作者

    Jun-song Jia; Jing-zhu Zhao; Hong-bing Deng; Jing Duan;

  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology. Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology. Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China Insritute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 36)021, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology. Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology. Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    ARIMA model; ecological footprint; henan province; simulation; prediction;

    机译：ARIMA模型;生态足迹;河南省模拟;预测;

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号