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Early warning signals of population productivity regime shifts in global fisheries

机译：全球渔业人口生产力制度转移的预警信号

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Early warning signals (EWSs) are indicators of critical transitions, and their ability to forecast ecological regime shifts depends on a priori understanding of underlying mechanisms. Conversely, performances of EWSs may indicate the mechanisms underlying observed ecological regime shifts. I evaluate the performances of two EWSs, i.e. standard deviation (SD) and autoregressive coefficient (AR1), in predicting the observed productivity regime shifts of 191 global fisheries populations. Signals of SD and AR1 are simultaneously detected in less than 50% population regime shifts and SD has higher positive likelihood ratio than AR1, suggesting critical transition may not be the major cause of observed regime shifts. However, when EWSs are correctly detected, they tend to provide more than five years warning time for more than 50% populations. The detection rate and warning time of SD and AR1 differ among fish orders, and rockfish populations show higher probability of true positive detection and longer warning time. EWSs are not definitive indicators of mechanisms underlying ecological regime shifts, but they may provide guidance in situations where ecological knowledge are limited.
机译：预警信号（EWSS）是关键转型的指标，其预测生态制度转变的能力取决于对基础机制的先验理解。相反，EWSS的性能可能表明所观察到的生态制度变化的机制。我评估了两个EWSS的性能，即标准偏差（SD）和自归系数（AR1），预测了191个全球渔业群体的观察到的生产力制度转变。 SD和AR1的信号在小于50％的群体制度变换和SD具有比AR1更高的阳性似然比，表明临界过渡可能不是观察结果的主要原因。但是，当EWSS正确检测到时，它们往往提供超过50％的人口超过五年的警告时间。 SD和AR1的检测率和警告时间在鱼序之间不同，而岩鱼群体显示出真正的阳性检测和更长的警告时间较高的概率。 EWSS不是生态制度转变的机制的最终指标，但他们可以在生态知识有限的情况下提供指导。

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