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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological research >The effects of climate change on the distribution of European glass lizard Pseudopus apodus (PALLAS, 1775) in Eurasia
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The effects of climate change on the distribution of European glass lizard Pseudopus apodus (PALLAS, 1775) in Eurasia

机译：气候变化对欧洲玻璃蜥蜴Pseudopus apodus（PALLAS，1775）在欧亚大陆的分布的影响

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摘要

The distribution area of Pseudopus apodus includes the Balkan, Crimean peninsulas, and Ciscaucasia region in Europe, and Asia Minor and the Middle East. This area has experienced a significant habitat loss and fragmentation because of human population growth, increased farming, logging and climate change. To estimate how climate change will affect the presumed future distribution of the studied species, we constructed the possible current distribution of the species and its potential environmental risk for future dispersion. We used an ensemble prediction to forecast the location and distribution of suitable habitats for P. apodus in present and future (i.e. 2070) based on 19 environmental variables. The results were consistent among models and indicated that there are two most important variables that affect distribution pattern of the species: temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality. All of the models used in this study showed a significant AUC and TSS value. Based upon FDA and ensemble maps it is proposed here that species range will be extended to the east, in particular in higher altitude regions like Afghanistan, but its western range in Jordan will be shrunk. Comparison of the current distribution and future prediction reveals that suitable habitats of Pseudopus apodus will be shifted to higher elevations by 2070 and during this period the species is predicted to migrate from lowlands to higher elevations. Change in latitudinal range is also probable to find new suitable areas under predicted future climate scenarios.
机译：Pseudopus apodus的分布地区包括欧洲的巴尔干半岛，克里米亚半岛和奇索卡西亚地区，以及小亚细亚和中东地区。由于人口增长，增加的耕作，伐木和气候变化，该地区遭受了严重的生境丧失和破碎化。为了估计气候变化将如何影响所研究物种的未来分布，我们构建了该物种当前可能的分布及其未来扩散的潜在环境风险。基于19个环境变量，我们使用集合预测法预测了当前和未来（即2070年）罗汉果的合适生境的位置和分布。模型之间的结果是一致的，并表明有两个最重要的变量影响物种的分布模式：温度季节和降水季节。本研究中使用的所有模型均显示出显着的AUC和TSS值。根据FDA和整体地图，这里建议将物种范围扩大到东部，特别是在阿富汗等高海拔地区，但其在约旦的西部范围将缩小。对当前分布和未来预测的比较表明，到2070年，假单胞菌的合适生境将转移到更高的海拔，在此期间，该物种有望从低地迁移到更高的海拔。在预计的未来气候情景下，纬度范围的变化也有可能找到新的合适区域。

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