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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological research >Vulnerability of subalpine fir species to climate change: using species distribution modeling to assess the future efficiency of current protected areas in the Korean Peninsula
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Vulnerability of subalpine fir species to climate change: using species distribution modeling to assess the future efficiency of current protected areas in the Korean Peninsula

机译：亚高山冷杉物种对气候变化的脆弱性：使用物种分布模型评估朝鲜半岛当前保护区的未来效率

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摘要

To facilitate the adaptive management of subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula under climate change conditions, we identified the climatic factors that determine the distribution of two dominant subalpine firs (Abies koreana and A. nephrolepis). We also identified sustainable and vulnerable habitats for these species inside and outside of current protected areas under climate change scenarios. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, and the amount of precipitation in the warmest quarter were the most important climatic variables that determined the distribution of these two Abies species. Potential habitats for A. koreana and A. nephrolepis were predicted to decrease to 3.3% and 36.4% of the current areas due to climate change, irrespective of whether inside or outside the protected areas. It was predicted that the potential habitats for A. nephrolepis would be maintained in the northern part of the Korean Peninsula, and sustainable potential habitats outside the protected areas were predicted in central parts of the Korean Peninsula. The potential habitats for A. koreana were predicted to disappear from Is. Jeju and shrink significantly in the Korean Peninsula. These results suggest that, in central parts of the Korean Peninsula, revision of protected areas would be effective in preserving A. nephrolepis under conditions of future climate change. In contrast, revision of protected areas would be insufficient to conserve A. koreana due to their high vulnerability and limited populations. Active management is required to ensure the survival of A. koreana under future climate conditions.
机译：为了在气候变化条件下促进朝鲜半岛亚高山生态系统的适应性管理，我们确定了确定两个主要亚高山冷杉（Abies koreana和A. nephrolepis）分布的气候因素。在气候变化情景下，我们还为当前保护区内外的这些物种确定了可持续和脆弱的栖息地。最冷月的最低温度和最暖季的降水量是决定这两个冷杉树种分布的最重要的气候变量。据预测，由于气候变化，无论是在保护区内还是在保护区之外，大韩民国和肾科动物的潜在栖息地将分别减少到当前面积的3.3％和36.4％。据预测，朝鲜半岛北部将保留潜在的A. nephrolepis栖息地，并在朝鲜半岛中部预测了保护区以外的可持续潜在栖息地。据预测，朝鲜蓟的潜在栖息地将从Is中消失。济州岛在朝鲜半岛显着萎缩。这些结果表明，在朝鲜半岛中部地区，在未来气候变化的条件下，对保护区的修改将有效地保护肾病菌。相比之下，由于保护区的高度脆弱性和人口有限，对保护区的修改将不足以保存朝鲜蓟。需要积极管理以确保朝鲜蓟在未来气候条件下的生存。

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  • 来源
    《Ecological research》 |2018年第2期|341-350|共10页
  • 作者

    Yun Jong-Hak; Nakao Katsuhiro; Tsuyama Ikutaro; Matsui Tetsuya; Park Chan-Ho; Lee Byoung-Yoon; Tanaka Nobuyuki;

  • 作者单位

    Natl Inst Ecol, Ecosyst Assessment Team, 1210 Geumgang Ro Maseo Myeon, Incheon 404708, South Korea;

    Forestry & Forest Prod Res Inst, Kansai Res Ctr, 68 Nagaikyutaroh, Kyoto 6120855, Japan;

    Forestry & Forest Prod Res Inst, Hokkaido Res Stn, Toyohira Ku, 7 Hitsujigaoka, Sapporo, Hokkaido 0628516, Japan;

    Forestry & Forest Prod Res Inst, Ctr Int Partnerships & Res Climate Change, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058687, Japan;

    Natl Inst Biol Resources, Plant Resources Div, 42 Nanji Ro, Incheon 404708, South Korea;

    Natl Inst Biol Resources, Plant Resources Div, 42 Nanji Ro, Incheon 404708, South Korea;

    Tokyo Univ Agr, Dept Int Agr Dev, Setagaya Ku, 1-1-1 Sakuragaoka, Tokyo 1568502, Japan;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Active management; Protected area; Sustainable habitats; General circulation models (GCM); Vulnerability;

    机译：主动管理;保护区;可持续的栖息地;一般环流模型（GCM）;脆弱性;

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