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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological research >Drivers of population growth variations for two Mediterranean sympatric Deer
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Drivers of population growth variations for two Mediterranean sympatric Deer

机译：两只地中海同胞鹿的人口增长差异的驱动因素

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摘要

Detecting density-dependence (DD) in population fluctuations is essential for population control, herd management and harvest programs. However, little information has been obtained for deer in Mediterranean ecosystems. We assess the effects of density, climate and harvesting on population growth fluctuations of two sympatric red (Cervus elaphus hispanicus) and fallow deer (Dama dama), in two hunting reserves located in a protected area of south-east Spain. We use time series analysis of 16 consecutive years of abundance estimates and hunting extractions. We hypothesized a negative influence of density, deer hunting and drought on population growth rates. Through an integrative Bayesian state-space modeling making possible a unified population analysis we have been able to not only estimate the effects of DD, climate and harvest extractions but also to evaluate their relative impacts on deer population in each location. We found deer populations exhibiting a very strong potential to grow from low density. We detected DD having a stronger effect than hunting and climatic factors, especially for overabundant deer populations close to their carrying capacity. Density-dependent mechanisms compensate harvest extractions, reducing hunting effectiveness. Severe summer drought conditions had negative effects on growth rates and eventually led to delayed autumn deer deaths. The weather effect is more important the more abundant the deer are. In a climate change context, in Mediterranean environments the importance of weather factors could become much greater if both ungulates' densities and aridity increase. Population size control here could modulate the negative effects of climatic constraints on deer and ecosystems conservation.
机译：检测人口波动中的密度依赖性（DD）对于人口控制，畜群管理和收获计划至关重要。但是，关于地中海生态系统中鹿的信息很少。我们评估了密度，气候和收成对位于西班牙东南部保护区的两个狩猎保护区中的两种同伴红（Cervus elaphus hispanicus）和小鹿（Dama dama）的种群增长波动的影响。我们使用连续16年的丰度估计和狩猎提取的时间序列分析。我们假设密度，猎鹿和干旱对人口增长率具有负面影响。通过集成的贝叶斯状态空间模型，可以进行统一的种群分析，我们不仅可以估计DD，气候和收获物提取的影响，还可以评估它们对每个位置的鹿种群的相对影响。我们发现鹿种群具有从低密度增长的巨大潜力。我们发现DD比狩猎和气候因素具有更强的影响力，特别是对于接近其承载能力的过多鹿群而言。依赖密度的机制会补偿收获物的提取，降低狩猎效率。夏季严峻的干旱条件对生长速度有负面影响，并最终导致延迟秋季鹿的死亡。鹿越丰富，天气影响就越重要。在气候变化的背景下，如果有蹄类动物的密度和干旱度都增加，那么在地中海环境中，天气因素的重要性可能会大大提高。这里的种群规模控制可以调节气候限制对鹿和生态系统保护的负面影响。

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