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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological research >Predicting the wetland distributions under climate warming in the Great Xing'an Mountains, northeastern China
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Predicting the wetland distributions under climate warming in the Great Xing'an Mountains, northeastern China

机译：预测中国东北大兴安岭气候变暖下的湿地分布

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摘要

The wetland ecosystem is particularly vulnerable to hydrological and climate changes. The Great Xing'an Mountain is such a region in China that has a large area of wetlands with rare human disturbance. The predictions of the global circulation model CGCM3 (the third-generation coupled global climate model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis) indicated that the temperature in The Great Xing'an Mountain will rise by 2-4℃ over the next 100 years. This paper predicts the potential distributions of wetlands in this area under the current and warming climate conditions. This predication was performed by the Random Forests model, with 18 environmental variables, which will reflect the climate and topography conditions. The model has been proven to have a great prediction ability. The wetland distributions are primarily topography-driven in the Great Xing'an Mountains. Mean annual temperature, warmness index, and potential evapotranspiration ratio are the most important climatic factors in wetland distributions. The model predictions for three future climate scenarios show that the wetland area tends to decrease, and higher emission will also cause more drastic shrinkage of wetland distributions. About 30% of the wetland area will disappear by 2050. The area will decrease 62.47, 76.90, and 85.83%, respectively, under CGCM3-B1, CGCM3-A1B, and CGCM3-A2 by 2100. As for spatial allocation, wetlands may begin to disappear from the sides to the center and south to north under a wanning climate. Under CGCM3-B1, the loss of wetlands may mainly occur in the south hills with flatter terrain, and some may occur in the north hills and intermontane plains. Under CGCM3-A1B, severe vanish of wetlands is predicted. Under CGCM3-A2, only a small area of wetlands may remain in the north of the high mountains.
机译：湿地生态系统特别容易受到水文和气候变化的影响。大兴安岭是中国这样的地区，湿地面积大，人为干扰少。全球循环模型CGCM3（加拿大气候建模与分析中心的第三代耦合全球气候模型）的预测表明，未来100年大兴安岭的温度将升高2-4℃。 。本文预测了当前和气候变暖条件下该地区湿地的潜在分布。该预测由随机森林模型执行，具有18个环境变量，将反映气候和地形条件。该模型已被证明具有强大的预测能力。在大兴安岭，湿地的分布主要是地形驱动的。年平均温度，温暖指数和潜在的蒸散量是湿地分布中最重要的气候因素。对三种未来气候情景的模型预测表明，湿地面积趋于减少，而更高的排放量也将导致湿地分布的急剧萎缩。到2050年，约30％的湿地面积将消失。到2100年，CGCM3-B1，CGCM3-A1B和CGCM3-A2下的湿地面积将分别减少62.47％，76.90％和85.83％。就空间分配而言，湿地可能会开始在气候变弱的情况下从侧面到中心以及从南到北消失。在CGCM3-B1模式下，湿地的流失主要发生在地形平坦的南部山丘上，有些可能发生在北部山丘和山间平原上。在CGCM3-A1B下，预计湿地将严重消失。在CGCM3-A2之下，高山北部只能保留一小片湿地。

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  • 来源
    《Ecological research》 |2011年第3期|p.605-613|共9页
  • 作者

    Hongjuan Liu; Rencang Bu; Jintong Liu; Wenfang Leng; Yuanman Hu; Libing Yang; Huitao Liu;

  • 作者单位

    Key Laboratory for Agricultural Water Resources,Center for Agricultural Resources Research,Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, China,Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenyang 110016, China;

    Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenyang 110016, China;

    Key Laboratory for Agricultural Water Resources,Center for Agricultural Resources Research,Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;

    Qinhuangdao Institute of Technology,Qinhuangdao 066100, China;

    Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenyang 110016, China;

    Shijiazhuang University of Economics,Shijiazhuang 050031, China;

    Key Laboratory for Agricultural Water Resources,Center for Agricultural Resources Research,Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    wetland; random forest; potential distribution; great xing'an mountains;

    机译：湿地;随机森林;潜在分布;大兴安岭;

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