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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological research >Managing water-use trade-offs in a semi-arid river delta to sustain multiple ecosystem services: a modeling approach
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Managing water-use trade-offs in a semi-arid river delta to sustain multiple ecosystem services: a modeling approach

机译：在半干旱河三角洲管理水资源利用权衡以维持多种生态系统服务：一种建模方法

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摘要

Managing trade-offs among water uses in a river basin to sustain multiple ecosystem services is crucial for adaptation to changing river flow regimes. Here we analyze the trade-off between irrigation and fisheries in the Amudarya, a semi-arid river basin in Central Asia, using an optimal control and an agent-based modeling approach. With the optimal control approach (OCA), we identify the economic and ecological conditions for water sharing in a regime where a social manager controls water withdrawals and fish harvesting. With the agent-based model (ABM), we relax some of the assumptions of the OCA to investigate how localized, individual agents with varied water use histories adapt their water use activities to local resource conditions. Variation in the farmers' initial labor allocations to the two activities results in regimes with only one activity or both. Global returns and income equality are highest in a mixed regime. The mixed regimes also are more robust to water variability because fishing activities can compensate for decreased agriculturalrnperformance in the midstream regions. Thus, allowing for multiple uses can improve the coupled social-ecological system's performance and its resilience. We also observe a lock-in effect similar to the current situation in the Amudarya, where agriculture is the dominant water use and transition to a more balanced allocation has proven to be extremely difficult. As in the ABM, this can to some extent be attributed to the difficulties of achieving sufficient revenues from fishing when agricultural activities upstream are high. Regulations or incentives are needed to overcome those barriers, and to facilitate progress towards integrated water management.
机译：在流域用水之间进行权衡以维持多种生态系统服务，对于适应不断变化的河流流态至关重要。在这里，我们使用最优控制和基于代理的建模方法来分析中亚半干旱河流域阿穆达里亚的灌溉与渔业之间的权衡。通过最佳控制方法（OCA），我们可以在社会经理控制取水量和捕捞量的制度下，确定共享水资源的经济和生态条件。使用基于主体的模型（ABM），我们放宽了OCA的一些假设，以研究具有不同用水历史的本地化个体代理如何使他们的用水活动适应当地的资源条件。农民对这两项活动的初始劳动分配的变化导致了只有一项活动或两项都存在的政权。在混合制度中，全球收益和收入平等最高。混合制度对水的可变性也更有效，因为捕鱼活动可以弥补中游地区农业生产的下降。因此，允许多种用途可以提高耦合的社会生态系统的性能和弹性。我们还观察到与阿穆达里亚州的现状类似的锁定效应，在该国农业是水的主要使用者，向更平衡的分配过渡已证明极为困难。如在反弹道导弹中一样，这在一定程度上可以归因于上游农业活动多时难以从捕鱼中获得足够的收入。需要制定法规或激励措施来克服这些障碍，并促进朝着综合水管理的方向发展。

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  • 来源
    《Ecological research》 |2009年第3期|491-503|共13页
  • 作者

    Maja Schlueter; Heather Leslie; Simon Levin;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, 106A Guyot Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544-2016, USA UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany;

    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, 106A Guyot Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544-2016, USA Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for Environmental Studies. Brown University, Providence, USA;

    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, 106A Guyot Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544-2016, USA Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, USA The Beijer Institute, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    trade-off; ecosystem services; water management; agent-based model; optimization; resilience;

    机译：交易;生态系统服务;水管理;基于主体的模型;优化;弹性;

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