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Multilayer network analysis of oil linkages

机译：油键的多层网络分析

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This manuscript proposes a new approach for unveiling existing linkages within the international oil market across multiple driving factors beyond production. A multilayer, multicountry network is extracted through a novel Bayesian graphical vector autoregressive model, which allows for a more comprehensive, dynamic representation of the network linkages than do traditional or static pairwise Granger-causal inference approaches. Building on previous work, the layers of the network include country- and region-specific oil production levels and rigs, both through simultaneous and lagged temporal dependences among key factors, while controlling for oil prices and a world economic activity index. The proposed approach extracts relationships across all variables through a dynamic, cross-regional network. This approach is highly scalable and adjusts for time-evolving linkages. The model outcome is a set of time-varying graphical networks that unveil both static representations of world oil linkages and variations in microeconomic relationships both within and between oil producers. An example is provided, illustrating the evolution of intra- and inter-regional relationships for two major interconnected oil producers: the United States, with a regional decomposition of its production and rig deployment, and the Arabian Peninsula and key Middle Eastern producers, with a country-based decomposition of production and rig deployment, while controlling for oil prices and global economic indices. Production is less affected by concurrent changes in oil prices and the overall economy than rigs. However, production is a lagged driver for prices, rather than rigs, which indicates that the linkage between rigs and production may not be fully accounted for in the markets.
机译：该手稿提出了一种新的方法，可以在超出生产范围内揭示国际石油市场内的现有联系。多层的多层网络通过新颖的贝叶斯图形矢量自回归模型提取，它允许更全面的，动态的网络连接表示，而不是传统或静态的成对格子 - 因果推理方法。建立在以前的工作中，网络层包括国家和地区特定的石油生产水平和钻井平台，既通过关键因素同时和滞后的时间依赖，同时控制油价和世界经济活动指数。所提出的方法通过动态跨区域网络提取所有变量的关系。这种方法是高度可扩展的，并调整时间不断发展的联系。模型结果是一系列时变图形网络，其揭示了世界油联系的静态表示和石油生产商内部和之间的微观经济关系的变化。提供了一个例子，说明了两个主要相互连接的石油生产商的内部和区域间关系的演变：美国的生产和钻机部署区域分解，以及阿拉伯半岛和主要的中东生产商，有一个基于国家的生产和钻机部署分解，同时控制油价和全球经济指标。由于油价并发变化和总体经济的生产较小的生产较少。然而，生产是价格的滞后驾驶员，而不是钻机，这表明钻机和生产之间的联系可能无法在市场上完全占据。

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