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Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: the case of Sweden

机译：量化非药物干预措施在Covid-19爆发期间的影响：瑞典的案例

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This paper estimates the effect of nonpharmaceutical intervention policies on public health during the COVID-19 outbreak by considering a counterfactual case for Sweden. Using a synthetic control approach. I find that strict initial lockdown measures play an important role in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 infection, as the infection cases in Sweden would have been reduced by almost 75 percent had its policymakers followed stricter containment policies. As people dynamically adjust their behaviour in response to information and policies, the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions becomes visible, with a time lag of around 5 weeks. Supplementary robustness checks and an alternative difference-in-differences framework analysis do not fundamentally alter the main conclusions. Finally, extending the analysis to excess mortality, I find that the lockdown measures would have been associated with a lower excess mortality rate in Sweden by 25 percentage points, with a steep age gradient of 29 percentage points for the most vulnerable elderly cohort. The outcome of this study can assist policymakers in laying out future guidelines to further protect public health, as well as facilitate plans for economic recovery.
机译：本文通过考虑瑞典的反事实情况，估计非药物干预政策对Covid-19爆发期间公共卫生的影响。使用合成控制方法。我发现严格的初始锁定措施在限制Covid-19感染的蔓延方面发挥着重要作用，因为瑞典的感染案例已经降低了近75％，其政策制定者跟随更严格的遏制政策。随着人们在响应信息和政策的情况下动态调整行为，洋水干预的影响变得可见，时间滞后约为5周。补充稳健性检查和替代差异差异框架分析并没有从根本上改变主要结论。最后，将分析扩展到过度的死亡率，我发现锁定措施将在瑞典的过度死亡率与25个百分点较低的死亡率相关，陡峭的年龄梯度为最脆弱的老年人队列29个百分点。本研究的结果可以帮助政策制定者制定未来的指导方针，以进一步保护公共卫生，以及促进经济复苏的计划。

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