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The spread of COVID-19 and the BCG vaccine: a natural experiment in reunified Germany

机译：Covid-19和BCG疫苗的蔓延：德国综合的自然实验

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摘要

The 'BCG hypothesis' suggests that the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine against tuberculosis limits the severity of COVID-19. We exploit the differential vaccination practices of East Germany and West Germany prior to reunification to test this hypothesis. Using a difference in regression discontinuities (RD-DD) design centred on the end of universal vaccination in the West, we find that differences in COVID-19 severity across cohorts in the East and West are insignificant or have the wrong sign. We document a sharp cross-sectional discontinuity in the severity of the disease, which we attribute to limited mobility across the long-gone border and which disappears when we control for social connectedness. Case and death data after the end of the first lockdown on 26 April does not display a discontinuity at the former border, suggesting that mobility (as opposed to BCG vaccination) played a major role during the initial outbreak.
机译：“BCG假设”表明，杆菌钙菌（BCG）疫苗对结核病限制了Covid-19的严重程度。 在统一之前，我们利用了东德国和西德的差分疫苗接种实践来测试这一假设。 在西方通用疫苗接种结束时使用回归不连续性（RD-DD）设计的差异，我们发现东部和西方队列的Covid-19严重程度的差异是微不足道的或有错误的标志。 我们记录了疾病严重程度的尖锐横截面不连续性，我们归因于跨越边境的流动性有限，当我们控制社会关联时消失。 案例和死亡数据在4月26日第一次锁定结束后不显示前边界的不连续性，表明移动性（而不是BCG疫苗接种）在初始爆发期间发挥了重要作用。

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