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Economic reform, growth and convergence in China

机译:中国的经济改革,增长与融合

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摘要

In this paper, we propose a new concept of convergence which is based on the metric entropy measure recently proposed by Granger et al. (2004, Journal of Time Series Analysis 25, 649-69) to investigate economic convergence in China. This entropy measure compares whole distributions of growth rates across individual provinces. Separately, based on this same entropy measure, we also implement cluster analysis to identify any convergence clubs. Our four main conclusions are: (1) while we certainly reject the null hypothesis that there exists a nationwide convergence, we do find that there exist convergence clubs for both the pre- and post-reform periods, (2) we find a number of very small convergence clubs. In particular, there are eleven and six convergence clubs for the pre- and post-reform periods, respectively, (3) in comparing the number and size of convergence clubs for both the pre- and post-reform periods, it could be argued that the extent of convergence is more prevalent during the post-reform period than during the pre-reform period and (4) convergence groups cannot be simply characterized by such unique features as region or the extent of policy preference level that are commonly used in the literature.
机译:在本文中,我们基于Granger等人最近提出的度量熵度量,提出了一个新的收敛概念。 (2004,时间序列分析杂志25,649-69)来研究中国的经济趋同。该熵测度比较了各个省份的整体增长率分布。另外,基于此相同的熵测度,我们还实施了聚类分析以识别任何趋同性俱乐部。我们的四个主要结论是:(1)虽然我们肯定否定了全国范围内存在趋同的零假设,但我们确实发现改革前和改革后时期都存在趋同俱乐部,(2)我们发现了许多很小的会聚俱乐部。特别是,改革前和改革后分别有11个和6个会聚俱乐部,(3)比较改革前和改革后两个时期的会聚俱乐部的数量和规模,可以认为改革后时期的趋同程度要比改革前时期的更普遍。(4)趋同集团不能简单地通过诸如文献中常用的区域或政策偏好水平之类的独特特征来表征。

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