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Impacts of realized volatility of oil price over foreign trade related activities in Turkey

机译：实际油价波动对土耳其对外贸易相关活动的影响

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Since 1973 oil crises, especially, small open economies have considered sudden and highly volatile movements in currencies and current account deficits. Oil prices have been breaking new historical price records since second quarter of 2014, especially from last quarter of 2015 to first quarter of 2016, which have gradually put pressure on political, geographical, and currencies risks in the Middle East and Eastern European countries. Similarly, because Turkish economy has been experienced serious current account deficit problems especially since 2002, the effect of decline in oil prices and increased volatility has been worth of investigating. For 2003M1-2015M7 period, export-import ratio, real exchange rate index, realized volatility in oil prices calculated based on monthly OPEC basket price, industrial production index, and consumer price index were collected to analyze these effects and causality relationship among these variables. Test results of unit root test with and without structural break, ARDL bound test and co-integration test were sorted out among variables. Initial result is that price volatility increases and total import decreases more sharply than total export after the decline in oil prices; thus, export-import ratio increases. Another is that there is a negative relationship between real exchange rate index and export-import ratio for real economy because of low oil substituents. As expected, inflation has an adverse effect on foreign trade ratio. Consequently, because of lower pressure of energy-induced inflation, economy policy makers will have some ability to change their priorities from inflation issue to other structural problems.
机译：自1973年以来的石油危机，特别是小型开放经济体就开始考虑货币和经常账户赤字的突然波动和高度动荡。自2014年第二季度以来，尤其是从2015年最后一个季度到2016年第一季度，石油价格一直在刷新历史价格新记录，这逐渐给中东和东欧国家的政治，地理和货币风险带来压力。同样，由于土耳其经济特别是从2002年以来就经历了严重的经常账户赤字问题，因此油价下跌和波动加剧的影响值得研究。在2003M1-2015M7期间，收集了基于进出口OPEC篮子价格，工业生产指数和消费物价指数计算的进出口比率，实际汇率指数，实际油价波动，以分析这些变量之间的影响和因果关系。在变量之间筛选出有无结构破坏的单位根测试，ARDL结合测试和协整测试的测试结果。最初的结果是，在油价下跌之后，价格波动加剧，总进口下降幅度远大于总出口下降幅度；因此，进出口比率增加。另一个原因是，由于石油取代基含量低，实际汇率指数与实体经济进出口比率之间存在负相关关系。不出所料，通货膨胀对外贸比率有不利影响。因此，由于能源引起的通胀压力较小，经济决策者将有能力将其优先事项从通胀问题转变为其他结构性问题。

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