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World gone wrong: the financial crisis, labor market transitions and earnings in Serbia

机译：世界错了：金融危机，劳动力市场转型和塞尔维亚的收入

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摘要

While results are starting to emerge, not much is known yet about the dynamics of the labor markets of the former Eastern economies, especially in the context of the current financial crisis. Arguably, this is mainly due to paucity of (panel) data. By examining labor market transitions and earnings growth and their correlates using a recent panel data set for Serbia, this paper combines both of these issues. Estimation of gross transition probabilities reveals that females are disadvantaged in the Serbian labor market in terms of moving out of the two undesirable states, unemployment and economic inactivity, relative to males during the first year of the financial crisis-though males are harder hit than females in terms of the levels of unemployment. In terms of earnings growth, the picture is reversed, with females experiencing smaller earnings decreases than males (though, owing to the gender earnings gap, from a much lower base). Examining the determinants of employment, unemployment, and inactivity transitions and of earnings growth reveal substantial gender differences related to individual, job, and firm characteristics. The overall results therefore hint at both males and females being hit in terms of employment and earnings, though in different ways. Finally, the paper discusses policy implications and provides suggestions for further research.
机译：尽管结果开始显现，但对前东方经济体的劳动力市场的动态知之甚少，特别是在当前金融危机的背景下。可以说，这主要是由于（面板）数据不足所致。通过使用最近的塞尔维亚面板数据集来检验劳动力市场的转变和收入增长及其相关性，本文将这两个问题结合在一起。对总体过渡概率的估计表明，在金融危机爆发的第一年中，相对于男性，女性在塞尔维亚劳动力市场上摆脱了失业和经济不活跃这两个不良状态，处于劣势，尽管男性遭受的打击比女性严重。就失业水平而言。在收入增长方面，情况恰好相反，女性的收入下降幅度要小于男性（尽管由于性别收入差距，基数要低得多）。检查就业，失业，不活跃过渡和收入增长的决定因素，发现与个人，工作和公司特征有关的性别差异很大。因此，总体结果表明，尽管就业方式和收入有所不同，但男性和女性都受到了打击。最后，本文讨论了政策含义，并为进一步研究提供了建议。

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