Austerity and recovery: Exchange rate regime choice, economic growth, and financial crises

Bohl Martin T.; Michaelis Philip; Siklos Pierre L.

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Austerity and recovery: Exchange rate regime choice, economic growth, and financial crises

机译：紧缩与复苏：汇率制度选择，经济增长和金融危机

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Our study investigates the role of the exchange rate regime to explain the empirical link between financial crises and economic activity. We examine the relationship between real per capita GDP growth, exchange rate regimes, and the incidence of crises. Asymmetries are also explored. While exchange rate regimes of all types can promote positive economic growth, disaggregation by region or country type yields significantly different results. Pegged regimes work best for emerging market economies while crawling regimes deliver the greatest boost to economic growth in the G20. However, unlike the extant literature, the foregoing positive influences are offset when economies are in a downturn. An important finding is that exchange rate regimes and financial crises interact. In almost all cases and types of financial crises, pegged regimes exert a negative impact on economic growth even after controlling for several economic factors. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

机译：我们的研究调查了汇率制度在解释金融危机和经济活动之间的经验联系方面的作用。我们研究了实际人均GDP增长，汇率制度和危机发生率之间的关系。还探讨了不对称性。尽管所有类型的汇率制度都可以促进积极的经济增长，但按地区或国家/地区分类显示的结果却大不相同。固定汇率制度最适合新兴市场经济体，而缓慢汇率制度则为20国集团（G20）的经济增长提供最大推动力。但是，与现有文献不同，当经济不景气时，上述积极影响会被抵消。一个重要发现是汇率制度和金融危机是相互影响的。在几乎所有情况和类型的金融危机中，钉住汇率制的政权即使在控制了几种经济因素后仍对经济增长产生负面影响。（C）2015 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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来源
《Economic modelling》 |2016年第2期|195-207|共13页
作者
Bohl Martin T.; Michaelis Philip; Siklos Pierre L.;
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作者单位

Univ Munster, Dept Econ, Stadtgraben 9, D-48143 Munster, Germany;

Univ Munster, Dept Econ, Stadtgraben 9, D-48143 Munster, Germany;

Wilfrid Laurier Univ, Lazaridis Sch Business & Econ, 75 Univ Ave West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3C5, Canada;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
Austerity; Recovery; Exchange rate regime; Financial crises;

机译：紧缩;恢复;汇率制度;金融危机;

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1. A contribution to the empirics of convergence in real GDP growth: the role of financial crises and exchange-rate regimes [J] . Morales-Zumaquero Amalia, Sosvilla-Rivero Simon Applied Economics . 2016,第22a24期

机译：对实际GDP增长趋同经验的贡献：金融危机和汇率制度的作用
2. Growth dynamics, financial crises and exchange rate regimes [J] . Morales-Zumaquero Amalia, Sosvilla-Rivero Simon Applied economics letters . 2015,第10a12期

机译：增长动力，金融危机和汇率制度
3. Real exchange rate volatility, financial crises and exchange rate regimes [J] . Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, Simon Sosvilla-Rivero Applied Economics . 2014,第7a9期

机译：实际汇率波动，金融危机和汇率制度
4. Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries [C] . Mian Ihnatov, Bogdan Capraru International Conference Emerging Markets Queries in Finance and Business . 2013

机译：中欧和东欧国家的汇率制度和经济增长
5. The Influence of Exchange Rate Regimes on the Relationships between Financial liberalization, and Banking Crises and Credit Booms. [D] . Sokun, Visal. 2011

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6. Maternal Choice in the UK Should Be Promoted Despite the Current Era of Financial Austerity [O] . Samuel G. Oxley, Eric Edison 2013

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7. Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Transition Economies: The Case of the Republic of Macedonia Abstract: This paper investigates the relative costs and benefits associated with introducing a different exchange rate regime in the Republic of Macedonia. In this finding, all econometrics results, using different methodologies (SVAR and VECM), show that introducing a different strategy of the exchange rate targeting in order to promote rapid economic growth could easy disturb macroeconomic stability (after having achieved it at a substantial cost) without any significant economic benefits. In the long term, the coefficient of exchange rate reveals that a one percent change in the exchange rate will generate an increase in the prices level of 0.52 percent, indicating that 52 percent of changes in the exchange rate feed into the prices level. The investigation suggests that introducing a different strategy of the exchange rate regime is likely to incur more costs than benefits. [O] . Besnik Fetai 100

机译：转型经济体的汇率传递：马其顿共和国案例摘要：本文研究了在马其顿共和国引入不同汇率制度所带来的相对成本和收益。在这一发现中，使用不同方法（sVaR和VECm）的所有计量经济学结果表明，引入不同的汇率目标战略以促进经济的快速增长可能容易扰乱宏观经济稳定性（在以相当大的成本实现后）没有任何重大的经济利益。从长期来看，汇率系数表明，汇率的百分之一变化将使价格水平上升0.52％，表明汇率变化的52％会进入价格水平。调查表明，引入不同的汇率制度策略可能会带来更多的成本而不是收益。

Austerity and recovery: Exchange rate regime choice, economic growth, and financial crises

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