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Assessment

机译:评定

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摘要

The latest set of minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in October cement expectations for base rates to be raised to 5% in November. From the hawkish tone of the minutes, it seems that the MPC believe rates do need to go higher in order to bring inflation back to target. In this assessment we discuss how our assessment of the UK economic outlook and prospects for inflation differs from that in the Bank of England. By past standards of disagreement between economists, the differences are not that great, amounting to 25 basis points on interest rates and 1/4% on GDP growth. But there are some more important differences between our view and that of the Bank of England and financial markets, which have implications for where interest rates might be heading, not in the next few months but through 2007.
机译:十月份货币政策委员会会议的最新会议记录巩固了将十一月份基准利率提高至5%的预期。从会议纪要的强硬立场来看,MPC似乎认为确实需要提高利率才能使通胀回到目标水平。在此评估中,我们讨论了我们对英国经济前景和通胀前景的评估与英格兰银行的评估有何不同。按照过去经济学家之间的分歧标准,两者之间的差异并不是很大,其利率水平为25个基点,GDP增长率为1/4%。但是,我们的观点与英格兰银行和金融市场之间存在一些更重要的差异,这些差异对利率的走势将产生影响,而不是在接下来的几个月内,直到2007年。

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