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The changing sources of new mortgage debt

机译:新抵押债务的来源不断变化

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A much clearer understanding is needed of the forces driving the current upsurge in the mortgage market and of the key factors contributing to the exceptional growth of mortgage indebtedness. It would then be easier to judge whether the widely-expected downswing in mortgage lending will be reasonably limited and gradual, or more pronounced and protracted. This paper, by Richard Talbot1, develops an appropriate analytical framework and model that traces the composition of incremental mortgage borrowing over the period since the mid-1980s. Estimates have been compiled for the various elements of additional borrowing using data from the Survey of Mortgage Lenders and the Bank of England back to 1993, and other statistics on the earlier composition of bank approvals and building society advances. This analysis of the debt aggregation process suggests that, at the level of the individual household, people simply will be unable, and indeed unwilling, to go on absorbing the relatively large amounts of incremental debt implied by many medium-term forecasts for mortgage lending.
机译:需要对推动当前抵押市场激增的力量以及促成抵押债务异常增长的关键因素有一个更加清晰的认识。这样就容易判断广泛预期的抵押贷款下降是否会受到合理的限制和渐进的影响,或者更加明显和持久。理查德·塔尔伯特(Richard Talbot)1撰写的本文建立了一个合适的分析框架和模型,可以追溯1980年代中期以来增量抵押贷款的构成。使用抵押贷款人调查局和英格兰银行的数据可以追溯到1993年,对额外借款的各个组成部分进行了估算,还提供了有关银行批准和建设社会进步的早期统计数据。对债务汇总过程的分析表明,从单个家庭的角度来看,人们将根本无法,甚至不愿意继续吸收许多中期抵押贷款预测所隐含的相对较大的增量债务。

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