• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Economic Outlook >Has the global recovery run out of steam?
【24h】

Has the global recovery run out of steam?

机译：全球复苏势头已尽吗？

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Our central forecast sees a rapid recovery in global investment and modest growth in consumption, especially in the US. Those two factors underpin the V-shaped global recovery that we foresee. However, recent data suggest there is some doubt about both of those assumptions: globally weak profits and stockmarkets, combined with possibly excessive investment in the US over the last decade, suggest that investment growth could be weaker that we project. Moreover, the US consumer - for so long the rock on which global growth has been built - may need to retrench at some point over the forecast period in order to restore her balance sheet to equilibrium. However, although there are clear downside risks to both consumption and investment, there are also countervailing upside forces at work - debt levels in the US are not high by international standards, housing wealth has held up, and macroeconomic policy still has plenty of scope to loosen further should the downside risks start to materialise. Threats to global investment and to US consumption mean the risks to the global recovery are skewed on the downside. But our central forecast, for modest growth, remains the most likely outcome in our view.
机译：我们的中央预测显示，全球投资将快速复苏，消费量将适度增长，尤其是在美国。这两个因素是我们预见的V型全球复苏的基础。但是，最近的数据表明对这两个假设都存在一些疑问：全球利润和股票市场疲软，再加上过去十年来美国对美国的过度投资，表明我们预计投资增长可能会减弱。此外，美国消费者-长期以来一直是全球增长的基础-可能需要在预测期内的某个时候收缩，以使其资产负债表恢复平衡。然而，尽管消费和投资均存在明显的下行风险，但工作中也存在抵消作用的上行力量-以国际标准衡量，美国的债务水平不高，住房财富得以维持，宏观经济政策仍有很大的发展空间如果下行风险开始显现，则进一步放宽。对全球投资和美国消费的威胁意味着全球经济复苏的风险在下降。但是，我们认为适度增长的主要预测仍然是最可能的结果。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号