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Local fiscal multipliers and spillover effects: Evidence from Philippine regions

机译:地方财政乘法器和溢出效应:来自菲律宾地区的证据

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摘要

Fiscal policy in developed countries has been a rich topic since the Great Recession. However, research has remained limited for developing countries despite their similar use of fiscal policy and concerns about the efficiency of public spending. To help address this research gap, this paper provides a case study of multiplier effects of local government spending in regions in the Philippines as well as spillover effects of local government spending across regions. An instrumental variable based on the country's intergovernmental transfer system is used to identify regional public spending in panel regressions. The local fiscal multiplier is estimated to be above one, where a 1-peso rise in spending by local government units in a region corresponds to a 1.2peso rise in regional output. Multiplier effects are highest for capital expenditures and appear to be primarily driven by the services sector. Spillover effects are comparatively large, at around 1.8-2.0, highlighting the important role of domestic trade when stimulating regional economic activity.
机译:自经济衰退以来,发达国家的财政政策一直是一个丰富的话题。然而,尽管他们对公共支出效率的担忧有关,但研究对于发展中国家,研究仍有限公司。为了帮助解决这一研究差距,本文提供了菲律宾地区地方政府支出的乘法效应的案例研究,以及地方政府在地区的溢出效应。基于该国政府间转让系统的乐器变量用于识别面板回归中的区域公共支出。当地财政乘法器估计高于1,其中一个区域在一个地区的地方支出的1-PESO上升对应于区域产出的1.2peso。乘数效应对于资本支出最高,并且似乎主要由服务部门驱动。溢出效应相对较大,约为1.8-2.0,突出了国内贸易在刺激区域经济活动时的重要作用。

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