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Utility from anticipation and personal equilibrium

机译：来自期望和个人平衡的效用

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摘要

I develop a dynamic model of individual decisionmaking in which the agent derives utility from physical outcomes as well as from rational beliefs about physical outcomes (“anticipation”), and these two payoff components can interact. Beliefs and behavior are jointly determined in a personal equilibrium by the requirement that behavior given past beliefs must be consistent with those beliefs. I explore three phenomena made possible by utility from anticipation, and prove that if the decisionmaker’s behavior is distinguishable from a person’s who cares only about physical outcomes, she must exhibit at least one of these phenomena. First, the decisionmaker can be prone to self-fulfilling expectations. Second, she might be time-inconsistent even if her preferences in all periods are identical. Third, she might exhibit informational preferences, where these preferences are intimately connected to her attitudes toward disappointments. Applications of the framework to reference-dependent preferences, impulsive behaviors, and emotionally difficult choices are discussed.
机译：我开发了一个个人决策的动态模型，其中，代理人从自然结果以及对自然结果的理性信念（“预期”）中获得效用，并且这两个收益组成部分可以相互作用。信念和行为是在个人均衡中共同决定的，其前提是过去的信念必须与这些信念保持一致。我研究了从预期中效用可以实现的三种现象，并证明了如果决策者的行为与仅关心身体结果的人的行为有所区别，那么她必须表现出至少一种这样的现象。首先，决策者容易产生自我实现的期望。其次，即使她在所有时期的偏好都是相同的，她也可能是时间不一致的。第三，她可能表现出信息偏好，这些偏好与她对失望的态度密切相关。讨论了该框架对与参考有关的偏好，冲动行为和情绪困难的选择的应用。

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