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Public health and multiple-phase mortality decline: Evidence from industrializing Japan

机译：公共卫生和多阶段死亡率下降：来自日本工业化的证据

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A growing body of literature shows the mitigating effects of water-supply systems on the mortality rates in large cities, yet the heterogeneities in the effects have been understudied. This study fills in the gap in existing knowledge by providing evidence for non-linearity in the effects of clean water using semiparametric fixed effects approach with city-level nationwide longitudinal dataset between 1922 and 1940, which covers 91% of total city population. According to our baseline estimate, the clean water accounts for approximately 27% of the decrease in the crude death rate in this period. Our results also indicate the heterogeneities in the improving effects of clean water with respect to the coverage of tap water among citizens. We found evidence that the installation of the water-supply system itself decreased waterborne infections and infant mortality but did not substantially improve the overall mortality rate in the initial phase. However, the subsequent expansion of tap water could result in a continuous decline in the overall risk of deaths in the second phase. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：越来越多的文献显示供水系统对大城市死亡率的缓解作用，但这种作用的异质性尚未得到充分研究。这项研究通过使用半参数固定效应方法以及1922年至1940年城市水平的全国纵向数据集提供的净水效应非线性证据来填补现有知识的空白，该数据覆盖了91％的城市人口。根据我们的基准估计，在此期间，清洁水约占原油死亡率下降的27％。我们的结果还表明，就公民中自来水的覆盖率而言，清洁水改善效果的异质性。我们发现有证据表明，供水系统本身的安装减少了水传播的感染和婴儿死亡率，但并未显着提高初始阶段的总死亡率。但是，随后的自来水膨胀可能导致第二阶段死亡的总体风险不断下降。 （C）2018 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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