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Does the level of infant mortality affect the rate of decline? Time series data from 21 countries

机译：婴儿死亡率水平是否会影响下降速度？来自21个国家/地区的时间序列数据

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Some scholars have suggested that an inverse care law holds for infant mortality—that infant mortality reductions are more rapid in regions with lower infant mortality. This theory has not been subjected to proper quantitative analysis. This paper examines time series data on infant mortality from 21 countries to test whether percentage reductions in infant mortality are larger when infant mortality is lower. We apply the Dickey-Fuller generalized least squares (DFGLS) unit root test to infant mortality rate (lMR) time series data from 21 mostly European nations for 1870-1988 to test the statistical significance of β in a regression analysis of Δln lMR_t = α + β ln lMR_(t-1) + ε_t. Evidence that β is significant and negative would support the claim that infant mortality declines more rapidly when substantial mortality reductions have already been achieved. With the preferred specification, the DFGLS unit root test rejected the inverse benefit hypothesis in all countries except the Netherlands at the 5% and 10% cutoffs and Australia at the 10% cutoff. The rejection of the inverse benefit hypothesis was robust to alternative specifications of the lag structure of lMR and to transformations of lMR other than logarithmic. Based on late 19th and 20th century data from countries in Europe and Latin America, there is scarce evidence that percentage reductions in infant mortality are generally smaller in higher mortality countries. These findings suggest that large percentage reductions in infant mortality are possible for countries at any stage in economic development and are reflective of durable advances in human knowledge, social institutions and physical capital.
机译：一些学者建议，婴儿死亡率应采用逆向护理法，即婴儿死亡率较低的地区，婴儿死亡率的降低速度更快。该理论尚未进行适当的定量分析。本文研究了来自21个国家/地区的婴儿死亡率的时间序列数据，以测试婴儿死亡率较低时婴儿死亡率降低的百分比是否更大。我们将Dickey-Fuller广义最小二乘（DFGLS）单位根检验应用于1870-1988年来自21个主要欧洲国家的婴儿死亡率（lMR）时间序列数据，以检验β在回归分析ΔlnlMR_t =α中的统计意义+βln lMR_（t-1）+ε_t。 β显着为负的证据将支持这样的说法，即当已经实现大幅降低死亡率时，婴儿死亡率下降得更快。对于首选规范，DFGLS单位根检验拒绝了除荷兰在5％和10％的门槛值和澳大利亚在10％的门槛值之外的所有国家的逆收益假设。逆效益假说的拒绝对lMR的滞后结构的替代规范以及除对数以外的lMR转换具有鲁棒性。根据欧洲和拉丁美洲国家19世纪和20世纪末的数据，很少有证据表明，较高死亡率的国家婴儿死亡率降低的百分比通常较小。这些发现表明，在经济发展的任何阶段，各国都有可能大幅度降低婴儿死亡率，这反映了人类知识，社会制度和物质资本的持久发展。

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